Divisional Weekend

Depending on your point of view, this may be the most exciting weekend of playoff football. The upsets are usually the most upsetting here, and we get to see the best teams of the regular season on the field again. It's only Thursday night, but here are my thoughts on a couple of the early lines.

Seattle @ Green Bay (-8)

Maybe I'm just not a believer in Favre, but part of me still isn't convinced by the Packers. Looking back at their schedule, I find nothing inspiring; since the 34-0 stomping they put on Minnesota, they haven't really beat any good teams. That beat down of Minnesota occurred in week 10. Since then, they've beaten Detroit (x2), Oakland, Carolina, St. Louis, and lost to Dallas and Chicago. Moreover, in that clunker of a game they played in Chicago, they lost any chance they had at home field advantage.

Other than Minnesota, none of the aforementioned teams have any sort of respectable run defense. How good is Ryan Grant? He's definitely a home-run hitting back, but his numbers have been boosted by those long runs. In three games, he ran for 15 or fewer attempts and had a average of over 6.7 yards per rush. The Seattle defense is ranked 12th against the rush and they held the Redskins 75 yards and 2.6 yards per rush. If Grant can't get running room, the game will be on Favre's arm, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but if Favre struggles like he did in Dallas and Chicago, Green Bay will have serious problems.

Favre, playoffs, Lambeau field, all in the same sentence, actually sound like quite a good thing. Personally, I think the Seahawks, are a sneaky pick this week. There's the whole Holmgren-Favre relationship, a Seattle offense that is dedicated to passing the ball (don't we know an AFC team that does that?), and the utter lack of playoff experience for most of the key players on the Packers.

The Seahawks +8 sounds pretty good to me. The only time The Pack has covered 8 points against a team with a winning record is week 2 against the Giants and week 10 against the Vikings. I don't know how confident I feel in calling a Seattle upset, but I feel pretty good about this game being within 6 points when it's all said and done. Probably worth waiting until Friday night or Saturday morning though... the money has been moving in the Packer's direction over the course of the week.


The pick: Seattle +8



San Diego @ Indy -9

Got a little long-winded in my GB-Seattle discussion. I think that it's the most interesting game of the weekend. San Diego at the Colts, however, will be less interesting.

The big problem here is that Antonio Gates is likely out. I just saw an update on Rotoworld (www.rotoworld.com) that there are rumors he'd be out for the AFC Championship even the Chargers somehow advanced, so it's probably not a Belichik-ish deception being run by the Chargers. Without Gates, I don't think this will even be a contest. The Colts D has been solid all year long, and for whatever reason, teams have had success stopping LT this year. Albert Haynesworth and th Titans held him to 42 yards on 21 carries. While many people will be quick to point out that Big Al is one of the, if not the best, defensive linemen in the league, Tomlinson has had several other miserable games this year-62 yards against GB, 40 against Minn, 62 against the Jags... and only 76 against the Colts earlier this year.

Speaking of that first meeting, what are the odds Peyton throws 6 interceptions again (or ever again in his career, for that matter)? The Chargers won that game on the virtue of Adam Vinatieri, the most clutch kicker of all time, missing a chip shot. So now, the Chargers go on the road into Indy, on turf, without Gates, against a much healthier Colts team that will likely be featuring Marvin Harrison? And the spread is only 9 points? I'll take the Colts please. Norv might have saved his job by beating the Titans, but the Chargers will be in the exact same spot as last year- out in the divisional round.


The Pick: Colts -9... Buy this one now, it opened at -7.5, and I could see it getting to -10 by Sunday.


Alright, that's it for the evening. I'll try to break down the other two games tomorrow.