Who would have thought when we entered the wild card round that the lowly New York Giants would make it to the Super Bowl? They were underdogs in every game they played, and they'll continue to be an underdog in the Super Bowl. It looks like Eli Manning finally figured out how to play with consistency at just the right time. Along with the Packers, we've seen the Mighty Cowboys and Colts go down in upsets as well. The Giants will get one more chance at their greatest upset in about one and a half weeks.
As for the games this weekend, I only managed to field one pick (San Diego +14) and never really spent much time analyzing the Giants game as I was too busy enjoying all of the glorious food, alcohol, landmarks, and doughnuts that New York has to offer. Consequently, I finish this weekend 1-0, and will only have 10 picks total when the playoffs are done. It's not a bad thing to not pick a game, though. If you aren't confident or comfortable, you should stay away when it comes to betting, especially in the regular season. You will have plenty more opportunities to wager money in the future, and you'll be kicking yourself if you lose your shirt on a game you didn't really like.
On a side note, I asked a New Yorker why there was not any rioting in the streets after the Giants upset Green Bay. His response was, "It's too cold."
Seeing as it was about 15 degrees or so at the time, I couldn't blame him.
New England: 21 San Diego: 12
If the Chargers could have figured out how to score a touchdown, my dream of an underdog superbowl would have come true. The defense did a great job of containing Brady, though Maroney got loose in the second half as a consequence. Still, I don't see how they realistically could have expected a better job from their defense.
The offensive side of the ball is where the Chargers lost the game. They picked off Brady 3 times and had great opportunities inside the 10-yard line and simply couldn't score. The redzone is definitely where the loss of LT impacted the Chargers the most. He set the NFL record for TDs in a season, and while Turner-Sproles are serviceable backups, they don't have the same presence that LT does in the redzone. Ultimately the defense kept it close enough to be interesting, but the wounded offense did not have enough left in the tank. A pretty good game to watch overall, and the Patriots have looked more and more vulnerable every week in my opinion, especially on defense.
NY Giants: 23 Green Bay: 20 (overtime)
Lawrence Tynes is the happiest man in New York. I was watching the game in the city and a friend of a friend that was with me is a pretty passionate fan, and he was getting ready to round up a mob and hunt the kicker down. Luckily, Tynes got his act together and surprisingly made a 47-yarder to win the game.
Overall, I thought the Giants looked like the better team throughout the game. They moved the ball effectively and their defense did a pretty good job pressuring Favre and making stops. If it weren't for the 90-yard catch and run by Driver (I think him tossing the Giants CB to the ground surprised everyone), the game wouldn't have been close. The Packers just didn't look good. Grant was a non-factor, which I thought would happen a week ago against Seattle. The Giants seem to get better and better each week, and surprisingly, Aaron Ross was available which helps the secondary quite a bit. Green Bay will be a good team again next year if Favre comes back, and will benefit from the playoff experience this year.
The playoff this year have been great for the underdogs ATS. 2-2 in the wildcard round, 3-1 in the divisional round, and 2-0 in the championship round. The early line on the Superbowl is the Pats -12, and with the way the game went in week 17, and how the Giants have progressed since, it's hard not to like the Giants +12. If they can manage to win ATS, that would make the 'dogs 8-3 for the playoffs. While the favorites struggling generally favors Vegas and odds-makers, you can make great money on the moneyline in these games. Out of the 8 games in which the 'dogs covered, 4 of them were outright upsets, with spreads of +3, +7, +7.5, and +10. It's hard to predict upsets, but the trend makes it even harder not take the Giants and the points, with maybe even a small wager on the moneyline in the Super Bowl.
I'll probably make a few posts between now and the Super Bowl. I wanted to get my game recap in since I just arrived back in San Diego last night, and I hope everyone had a good Championship weekend. Following the Super Bowl, the purpose of this blog will shift gears to fantasy football, focusing on the draft, trades, free agency, etc. Once the regular season roles around next year, I'll try to maintain weekly updates of picks and fantasy recommendations... I'm thinking maybe a Thursday fantasy post and a Friday betting post. We'll see.
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