Early Rookie Fantasy Rankings

The draft has come and gone, and came and went at a mercifully quicker pace than it did last year. Changing the allotted times for picks in the draft has probably been the best decision Goodell has made as commissioner.

There weren't too many surprises initially, but then a flurry of trades ensued, leaving mock drafts everywhere in shambles. Overall, it felt like teams were not so big on skill positions this year; 15 ( O and D ) linemen were chosen in the 1st round, and we're left with a feeling that maybe the Giants convinced more than a few GMs that pass-rushing wins championships.

Nonetheless, there were some intriguing rookies selected that could have a fantasy impact in their first year. I'll break them down by each of the positions (QB/RB/WR/TE). You'll notice when reading this that most players I consider to be "worth a roster spot" or "good for building depth." Generally, you shouldn't draft rookies with high expectations, as they rarely produce outstanding numbers. There are always exceptions, but I'm not about to make a rookie my RB1, even if that means I'll miss out on the occasional Adrian Peterson caliber of player.

QUARTERBACKS

Players worth a pick: None

Players to forget about (for this year, anyway) : All

Rookie quarterbacks rarely do well. Even when they win games, a la Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, the stats aren't amazing (he threw for 17 TD, 11 INT, 2621 yards)... So, at best, you might get a serviceable QB2 for your fantasy squad. Let some other chump take the rookie QBs and get yourself someone with more upside, like a Cutler or a Leinart.

RUNNINGBACKS

Players worth a pick:

Darren McFadden, Oakland- The first back off the board should at least split carries in Oakland. He will likely be over-valued in drafts, but Oakland, as bad as they were on offense, still managed to have an effective ground game from time to time. Run DMC makes for a risky RB3, but someone will take him hoping he's this year's Adrian Peterson. If you can manage to grab him as a RB4, he's well worth it there.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina- This pick marks the official demise of DeAngelo Williams as a feature back. Good pick by Carolina, as Stewart's stock fell from his toe surgery. At 5'11, 235, and a 4.48 forty, I think he'll post Stephen Davis (who was 6'0, 230) like numbers in Carolina's offense. I would temper your expectations for his rookie year, as he'll likely be sharing the ball with DeAngelo Williams. If Carolina can get Delhomme healthy and their passing game in order, I expect Stewart to make for a solid RB3/Flex as he'll get the majority of goal-line touches.

Felix Jones, Dallas- Still the Barber-Jones combo, just with a different Jones now. Hopefully Felix can be more consistent that Julius was in that offense. Due to the fact Barber will be the feature back, I can't see Jones contributing fantasy wise as more than roster depth or a bye-week fill-in, but he'll have some production in his rookie season.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh- This is bad news for Willie Parker. He already had trouble getting TDs last year (count them, 2...) and it the Steelers taking Mendenhall signify that they are more than willing to use someone else to cross the goal-line. Mendenhall is a sneaky pick in TD heavy leagues.

Matt Forte, Chicago- Somehow, Cedric Benson ended up with a shorter leash than Rex Grossman. I find that puzzling, but Forte is in position to take over primary duties for Chicago. The coaches are already touting him as a "three down back." If Benson doesn't come up with a good camp, he'll be relegated to a backup role in a hurry. At this point, Forte looks like a RB3 with RB2 upside.

Ray Rice, Baltimore- He'll be a handcuff for Willis McGahee owners.

Kevin Smith, Detroit- Someone has to carry the ball out there. Tatum Bell might steal some carries, but aside from that, it's his show. As he was drafted in the third round, he might go unnoticed by novice fantasy owners. He's worth a spot in deep leagues. Again, I'll go with RB3 with RB2 upside, since Detroit will likely make a more concerted effort to run the ball this year.

Marcus Thomas, San Diego- The new Michael Turner? The Chargers gave up a 2009 2nd round pick for him, which seems odd, given he was selected in the 5th round. A.J. Smith must have seen something he likes. Draftable as a LT handcuff.

Players to forget about:

Chris Johnson, Tennessee- The Titans collect RBs like Detroit used to collect WRs. The backfield is too crowded for anyone to stand out. He may be worth a late round flier, but don't hold your breath.

Steve Slanton, Houston- With Ahman Green and Chris Brown ahead of him, he'll only play if injuries devastate the RB group again (which is a possibility, with that group).

Ryan Torain, Denver- As a Bronco, he gets special mention here since the whole world is convinced he'll be the next big thing. Not this year.

And all of the ones I didn't mention.

WIDE RECEIVERS

I don't really have high hopes for any in this years group, but I'll mention a couple. I would consider all of these worth a late selection, as your 5th or 6th WR.

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia- A bonus if your league counts returns. Seeing as Philly made Kevin Curtis productive, Jackson will have a chance to line up in the slot and get some catches.

James Hardy, Buffalo- This kid is TALL (6'6"). Given the fact Buffalo doesn't really have a good second receiver, he may have an opportunity to line up as the WR2 across from Lee Evans. Sleeper potential, here.

Malcom Kelly and Devin Thomas, Washington- One of them will likely develop into the WR2 this season.

Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh- Could develop into a redzone threat, but will be stuck behind Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward for now.

Early Doucet, Arizona- Worth keeping an eye on in case Boldin gets traded.

Tight Ends

Worth a pick:

John Carlson, Seattle- He'll likely beat out Putzier and Heller and be the new starting TE. Worth stashing as a TE2 and seeing if anything happens.

Dustin Keller- New starting TE for the Jets... if only their offense was better...

The rest will be buried as TE2s.


That's all for the draft article. These rankings will surely change as these players develop with their new teams, so keep an eye on the players mentioned here over the summer.