Early Mock Draft

It seems like just a few days ago the NFL draft hype-machine was in full swing and fantasy drafts were too distant to even think about. Lo and behold, it's mid-June, and fantasy leagues are opening for business. While most serious leagues don't draft until mid-August or later, a "warm-up" draft, as I call it, is a great way to practice your draft strategy, get an early read on ADPs, and get warmed up for your money league drafts.

My draft strategy is always fairly basic; I draft value in the early rounds (read: in the first 5 rounds, I take the top of my board over position/need) and prefer to gamble in the later rounds on rookies, sleeper picks, etc.

The following draft occurred in a Yahoo public league, with 10 teams, standard scoring, with NO PPR. I had the 9th selection in odd rounds, and 2nd selection in even rounds. I'll include my picks below, with commentary on who was available and why I chose that particular player.

Round 1, Pick 9: RANDY MOSS, WR, New England
Other players considered: Frank Gore

This was probably my most controversial pick. Frank Gore was also available, with Clinton Portis or Ryan Grant likely to fall to me after the turn. I went with Moss because this is not a PPR league. I think Gore will have a much better season this year, but I don't expect his rushing totals to be near '06 levels. I do believe he'll have an increase in receptions, but that does not help as much in a non-ppr league.
Moss will still be a TD machine this year in New England, and was my #1 WR.

Round 2, Pick 12: RYAN GRANT, RB, Green Bay
Other players considered: None.

Wtih Gore and Portis gone, and no WR worthy of this slot, Grant was my man. I would consider Brady in this spot in future drafts, but he was taken with the #3 (!!) pick overall. Grant was the last back remaining in my top tier of RBs. He's got fresh legs, had a phenomenal second half of last year, and Green Bay should still have a solid offense even with Favre gone. If nothing else, Favre's retirements should lead to Grant getting more touches. Still, he is the last back I would consider a solid RB1.

Round 3, Pick 29: JAMAL LEWIS, RB, Cleveland
Other players considered: Brandon Marshal, Chad Johnson

I was thrilled when Jamal fell to me with this pick. Quality RBs had all but disappeared by this point. Brandon Jacobs had gone earlier in the third round, and Lewis was in the middle of what I considered to be tier 2 RBs. Cleveland did nothing to replace him, and he had a very good year last year (1300+ yds, 9 rushing TDs). Cleveland made a big splash in free agency and trading, improving both the offense and defense, and Jamal should be able to duplicate his performance from last season. I considered Brandon Marshall as he has WR1 upside, and also Ocho Cinco, but decided against them as Marshall, Torry Holt, and Chad Johnson were on the board with only 2 picks until my next one.

Round 4, Pick 32, CHAD JOHNSON, WR, Cincinnati
Other players considered: None

I couldn't believe my luck with this pick after the Jamal Lewis pick. People tend to worry too much about hold outs, unhappy players, etc, in every sport. Good players play and produce, even when they want a new contract or to be traded. Aside from the Eagles suspending TO, when is the last time a stud player refused to play during the season? Chad Johnson was a top 3 WR going into last year, and the third most yards, and 8 TDs. Even with him being unhappy in Cincy, he's going to play, and they're going to throw them the ball. Him falling to the 4th round was ridiculous, and resulted in my good fortune.

Round 5, Pick 49, DONOVAN MCNABB, QB, Philadelphia
Other players considered: Calvin Johnson, Michael Turner

This pick was the first pick I was truly excited about. McNabb is a big risk/reward pick here. He seems oft injured lately, but he did play the final 4 games of '07 with 6 TDs and 1 INT. With all of the elite and even solid QBs gone, I felt there was a big drop-off after McNabb. Bulger was available, but I worry about his health, and that of his O-Line, and the age/quality of his receivers, so I felt more comfortable going out on a limb for McNabb, and hoping for a quality QB2. I briefly considered Calvin Johnson here, but I was already stacked at receiver. Turner seemed like a good value here as well, but ultimately, I felt like the values were about even, and my starting RBs were already set.

Round 6, Pick 52, MICHAEL TURNER, RB, Atlanta
Other players considered: None

This was an easy pick. A clear-cut starting RB on the board is always valuable, even when he's in a terrible offense. Calvin Johnson was taken the pick before this one, so there weren't any receivers worth the pick here. I think Atlanta will be terrible, but the first play Matt Ryan will learn in practice will be "Hand the ball to Michael Turner." I love him as a RB3 and he should provide some decent matchup opportunities throughout the season.

Round 7, Pick 69, CHRIS CHAMBERS, WR, Miami
Other players considered: San Diego (team defense)

I felt this was another exceptional value this late. In little over half a season with the Chargers' offense, Chambers compiled 970 yards and 4TDs. If Rivers gets more consistent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chambers jump to 1100+ yards and 6-10 TDs on the season. Even if his numbers stayed the same, he's still a fine WR3 on a fantasy squad.
I briefly considered taking the Chargers' Defense, but the 7th round just didn't seem like a good value. Worst case scenario, I'll take a defense late, and play the matchups.

Round 8, Pick 72, JAY CUTLER, QB, Denver
Other players considered: None

I was ready to take the SD Defense here, and naturally, they were taken the pick before mine. Cutler fit perfectly into my plans; I feel he's a great QB2, which is what I needed with the risky McNabb as my QB1. Cutler posted a 20:14 TD:INT ratio last year, with about 3500 yards passing. He's entering his third season, and I expect him to continue progressing... Having watched a number of his games, he certainly has moments where he looks like a great passer, but he also has many moments where he looks like a young QB learning the game. With a little polish, he'll be QB1 material in another season or two, and may even be rated as a QB1 this season in favorable matchups.

Round 9, Pick 89, VERNON DAVIS, TE, San Francisco
Other players considered: Jonathan Stewart

Heath Miller was taken with the pick before mine, which pissed me off greatly. I don't really like Veron Davis as a fantasy TE, as he's been nothing but hype so far. However, Mike Martz supposedly likes him and is thinking about lining him up as a WR in certain situations. Moreover, this could actually work as Davis can run a 4.38 forty, and he's 6'3". So why not take the gamble and hope to get another TE/WR, a la Marques Colston a couple of years ago? I considered taking Jonathan Stewart, but the RB4 on my team isn't going to get much playing time regardless, so Davis seemed like a good risk/reward pick.

Round 10, Pick 92, TENNESSEE (Team Defense)

The Tennessee defense is greatly underrated. If the Titans can go 10-6 in a division with Indy, Jacksonville, and Houston, AND Vince Young is their QB...?!? They won just about every game because of their defense (with the exception of Rob Bironas' 8FG game). Chicago, Dallas, New England, New York, Jacksonville, and San Diego, were all picked before I took Tennessee, so I was pretty happy they fell to me here.

Round 11, Pick 109, ANTHONY GONZALEZ, WR, Indianapolis

A WR4, with upside. If Marvin Harrison goes to jail or gets injured, Gonzalez could have some value, otherwise, he's a bye-week fill in at best.

Round 12, Pick 112, FRED TAYLOR, RB, Jacksonville

I was surprised to find Fred here. Apparently everyone is thinking MoJo will take over this year, but we all thought that last year, too. Why not take him as a RB4 and see if he continues to hold the reigns?

Round 13, Pick 129, ISAAC BRUCE, WR, San Francisco

He may be my fantasy WR5, but he's the WR1 for the 49ers. I don't expect much of him, but he could be a solid bye week fill-in with a favorable matchup.

Round 14, Pick 132, JEFF REED, K, Pittsburgh

I broke the one law I set for myself: never take a kicker before the last round. I only did this with supreme confidence my last pick would not be selected.

Round 15, Pick 149, JOHN CARLSON, TE, Seattle

A major TE sleeper. He's looked good in mini-camp so far, and the early word is he's the favorite to take over as TE1 in Seattle's offense.