The Early Line

Picking games is part art and part science. You can find all of the data in the world to help you make your picks, the only problem is, you can find enough data to go either way. That's where the art comes in. Everyone out there has their own system; some people "follow the money," other people are looking at weather reports, other people develop their own handicapping system with some sort of excel spreadsheet- everyone is different.

When people ask me how I make my picks, I tell them I don't really have a set system. As an avid fantasy football player, I'm up to date on player stats, injuries, who's hot and who's not. As a fan of the game, I'm looking at box scores for all the games every week, trying to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team just for the sake of knowing these things. And sometimes, as a gambler, there's just a game you want to bet on and no rhyme or reason to explain it.

The one belief that I hold is that odds-makers and the general public (whose betting trends move the lines) are skeptical. It takes more than one game for them to be convinced that a team is bad, good, or just different from the general perceptions created in the media. Unless there is some sort of devastating injury, it takes time for people adjust their expectations. This is where I see my opportunity- I analyze the games with my aforementioned criteria and try to identify games where I feel the statistical data, game film, and box scores don't support the line. So far I'm off to a slow start this season (10-14 overall) but 3-1 on my best bet isn't too bad, and the season is still young and full of surprises.

Here's my take on some of the early lines this for Week 5 (using the Thursday morning line). Oh, and I'll use a confidence rating to give you a gauge on how strongly I feel on a game. A 1 means I might make a friendly wager with you, 5 means I'm putting my rent check on the line. I'll also go in-depth on two games, my top two picks of the week, then list the remaining picks I like in brief. Sort of feeling out the format here, as this is the first weekly posting.

Featured Picks

Best Bet: BEARS -3.5 over LIONS

The Bears are playing great ball right now. they gave up 2 games they would/could/should have won against the Panthers and Bucs, but handled the Eagles and Colts. Sure, they're on the road against Detroit, but does that even matter? The Lions are 0-3 ATS, falling to the Falcons, Packers, and Niners. The Bears D should suffocate them and Matt Forte is poised to have the best game of his young career against the soft Lions run defense (remember Michael Turner rolling for 220 yards in week 1?). I don't know why this line is only 3.5. I'd spot the Bears a touchdown, at least. This pick is a no-brainer.
Confidence: 5/5

CHARGERS -6.5 over DOLPHINS

Yes, the Dolphins beat New England when they were 13 point dogs. I'm not a believer. And yes, the Chargers have looked pretty weak, and only covered against Oakland on a miraculous, clock-killing run play. However, the Chargers are getting healthier. LT is looking better each week, center Nick Hardwick came back last week, and Stephen Cooper comes back from his suspension this week. Just like last year, the Chargers have started slow. I still think they will develop into the contender everyone though they would be. Miami matches up poorly with San Diego. They have the 26th ranked pass defense, and will be facing Gates, Chambers, Jackson, and LT. While their run defense is ranked 10th, they haven't faced any good running teams yet (NY Jets, Cardinals, Pats). Look for the San Diego offense to put this one away early. I also expect their defense to take advantage of the matchup and try to show everyone they're not one of the worst in the league.
Confidence: 4/5

Quick Picks

COLTS -3 over TEXANS

The Colts can't be that bad, can they? This game has the makings of a shootout. The Colts defense is looking pretty bad, and the Texans simply can't find a way to get anything going. The Colts will likely run a bit more of a ball control offense this week to keep their defense fresh and slow down the Texans. Addai should be in for a monster game, and at worst, I see this game being a push.
Confidence: 3/5

TITANS -3 over RAVENS

Hmm, there sure are a lot of road favorites this week. The Titans are one of them, but trust in their defense. I don't think Albert Haynesworth and the Titans are worried about Joe Flacco. Or anyone. This defense is dominant. It'll likely be a low-scoring affair, and the 3 points may feel like 7, but I like the odds of Tennessee turning this game into a route with a couple of big plays on defense and special teams.
Confidence: 3/5

NY GIANTS -7 over SEAHAWKS

For those of you who "follow the money," do the opposite. This line opened at 9, and has since moved to 7. And this was Thursday morning. I can understand some of the logic; Seattle is getting Engram and Branch back, they had a nice, restful bye-week to heal up, and they beat the crap out of the Rams in week 3. And, Plax is out for NY. Still, Seattle is terrible on the road, and the Giants offense will do better than people think without Plax.
Confidence: 2.5/5

COWBOYS -17 over BENGALS

1. Dallas is going to run the ball 30 times this week, both to show the world TO does not call the plays and because they realized how dumb they were for calling 11 runs the entire game last week. Coincidentally, their run defense is ranked 28th, allowing 160+ yards a game. Fantasy owners of Marion Barber, rejoice!
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely starting for the Bengals. Who? The same guy who managed 12 points against Cleveland, that's who.
Confidence: 2/5