Better Lucky Than Good

I've returned from my hiatus. I spent most of my football thoughts today lamenting the first quarter of the season gone by... 7-11-0 ATS my first 3 weeks of a pool... One "serious" fantasy football team staring a 2-2 record in the face, though I've scored the most points in the league. My other "serious" team going to a cool 0-4, after benching Ronnie Brown in week 3 and Steven Jackson in week 4. As I wondered why nothing goes right, the Chargers, my lock/best bet/"sure thing" this week were killing the clock, up by 3 against Oakland when they went off as a 7 point favorite, I watched LT break for a needless touchdown. Needless for the Chargers, but they went from missing the spread by 4 to covering by 3 on that play and salvaged what would have been a miserable week for me. They say it's better to be lucky than good, and sometimes, they're right. Just keep in mind for all the bad breaks you catch, you're bound to get a good one every now and again.

Sunday is not the normal day I'll be posting, but I wanted to get back in the saddle and get the blog going again. Hopefully my half-dozen readers haven't abandoned me. I'll try to post my picks early this week, as well as some fantasy thoughts at some point on the weekend.

Noteworthy News:

Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans: A friend called me late last night seeking some line-up help. I recommended picking up Lance Moore and benching Brian Westbrook. Lance had a huge day (7 rec, 101 yds, 2TDs) and should be picked up. He'll be solid as long as Colston and Shockey are out.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay: He's telling people he separated his shoulder. Tests to come tomorrow. He has a tasty matchup against Atlanta next week, if he's healthy.

Brett Favre, QB, NY Jets: Sell high. 6TDs? SIX?!? No way. It's all downhill from here. Maybe Favre can keep it together and do what he did last year, but I think he'll have a meltdown at some point.

Larry Johnson, RB, KC Chiefs: Holy crap! Avoiding him on draft day doesn't seem so smart anymore, does it?

Steve Slaton, RB, Houston: He didn't do well running this week but he sure did catch. If he's available in your league, he's worth picking up. He's put together two consecutive good weeks and has a nice matchup next week (Indy).

Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona: Ouch. That hit was nasty. Early word is nothing major (like paralysis or broken bones) but I'm sure he has a concussion. He'll probably miss some time. Steve Breaston could be a good pickup after a solid day today.

Noteworthy Gambling News:

That was a classic trap game for Denver. Also some a matchup issue, as their run defense is still a bit soft. I like them to rebound at home against Tampa next week. I imagine the line will be Denver -4 or -5. This game will serve as a good wake-up call.

Carolina is looking pretty consistent. I would expect a similar performance next week against the Chiefs, should be an easy pick if the line opens up less than -7, which is possible due to today's upset.

Who can beat Tennessee right now? They look like legitimate contenders with Collins at the helm. The odds-makers haven't been believers as of yet.

Arizona is fast coming down to earth, and losing Boldin won't help. I wouldn't expect them to play Buffalo tough next week.

NFC East Division games are becoming increasing tough to bet. It looks like anything is possible in this division. I don't remember ever seeing a division this competitive since the NFL the divisions were restructured.