Ramblings and Gambling

Parity

2008-10-16T21:03:00.000-07:00

Parity is a word that is used every season to describe the NFL after a week full of upsets. Week 6 was officially "parity week." Every article I read makes some mention about teams rising and falling so fast, the athletes are so talented, so anyone can win, etc. Well, all of this "parity" makes for terrible gambling! How many people out there took The Rams, Lions, Cardinals, Browns, and Falcons? Upsets against the spread are one thing, but 4 out of the 5 aforementioned teams won outright. I imagine every survival/knockout pool in the country just got quite a bit thinner.

Needless to say, I went 2-4 last week, and am now batting .500 with my best bets this year. We're just over a third of the way through the season, so there's still plenty of time to get things back on track, and teams are starting to show their true colors (I hope). And hopefully, now that "parity week" is out of the system, we won't see such nonsense again this year.

I don't have my picks yet (probably will post them on Saturday) but here are some reflections on the season so far.

The Colts are back. The 4th quarter against Houston made me start to believe this, and watching them tear apart the Ravens confirmed it. Addai is out 2-4 weeks, sure, but I'm pretty sure they can survive throwing the ball. The Colts -1 this week is an early candidate to be my best bet.

The Falcons aren't the worst team in the league. Pretty much every sports-writer, "expert", analyst, myself, and your grandma had the Falcons penciled in for 4-12 or worse, and getting another top pick this year. It looks like they have different plans. Matt Ryan is having a great rookie season (57%, 194 YPG, 5TD, 3INT) and the offensive line blocks enough for Turner to pulverize weaker defenses. 8-8 is definitely attainable for this team, and they have a great foundation to build off of going forward.

Minnesota is not the best team in the league.The Vikings were a sexy pick to represent the NFC in the Superbowl this year. How quickly things turn around. Adrian Peterson is a great running back, but when your QB-WR duo is Tavaris Jackson/Gus Frerotte - Bernard Berrian, things aren't going to go so well for your offense. The defense isn't able to carry this team. The Vikings need a QB of the future, or AP will be the next great running back to spend his career on a miserable team.

Neither conference is clearly dominant. The NFC has gone from the "Junior Varsity" conference to the "superior conference" and now we're drawing even again. The Colts, Pats, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars were all considered top AFC teams and could handle any NFC opponent. In fact, the only teams worth mentioning in the NFC were the Giants and the Cowboys. Injuries have been a factor for all of these teams, but there's that "parity" word coming up again- In today's NFL, things change rapidly

We can surmise that when in comes to picking winners, we will have to shift our thinking as well this season. Paying attention to injuries, identifying the slumps and streaks, and evaluating matchups are all more important on a weekly basis this year. There are no dominant, powerhouse teams that can be counted on like there were last season. This year, the savvy bettor will need to move quickly on the lines to take advantage of them as well as avoid the trap of "this team can't possibly lose this game." Those games are lost every year, but in the first six weeks this year, it seems like a regular occurrence.

Fantasy Quick Hits

Addai out 2-4 weeks.
Kellen Winslow's balls are reducing in size (which is a good thing at this point).
Jeremy Shockey should be back (pick him up if you can).\
Ryan Grant is looking like a bust. Be worried if he doesn't put up numbers on the Colts.
Despite what you read in the news, Dallas should, and likely will, put Romo on the shelf for a few weeks.
Roy Williams will not be a huge fantasy asset even though he was traded. Think of him as the Chris Chambers of last year.
Avoid any Kansas City player like the plague this week.

Early Picks

2008-10-09T19:00:00.000-07:00

Pressed for time, so let's get down to business.

Best Bet: Broncos -3.5 over Jaguars

The Jaguars' pass defense has become a liability recently (26th ranked, 237.2 YPG allowed). Their offense has really struggled, and while the Denver defense has been terrible this year, they did show some life last week. The Broncos at home makes this even easier. Look for a high scoring game with Denver winning by a TD or more.

Confidence: 4.25/5

The Rest:

Houston -3 over Miami

Houston is better than their record. They've lost some close ones. They should be able to beat the Dolphins at home, especially with Schaub likely back in action this week. Their offense finally looked like it was coming together last week.
Confidence: 3.0/5

EDIT, 10/11
This picked has been subbed out for NY Jets -6. News came out today that Palmer is out. The Bengals should be pretty anemic without him.

Saints -7.5 over Oakland

I doubt the players are thrilled about Kiffin being fired. The Raiders are in shambles. The Saints should have a field day against the Raiders, especially if their run defense plays like it did against Minnesota.
Confidence: 3.5/5

Vikings -13 over Lions

The Vikings are at home, coming off a huge road win, playing against... Dan Orlovsky? The Lions seem even worse than the Raiders. They've given up 31+ points EVERY game. AP should explode in this one after being bottled up last week. This game will likely be put away by the end of the third quarter.
Confidence: 4.0/5

Bears -2.5 over Falcons

The Bears get no respect. The Falcons will have the throw the ball to stay in this game. The Bears defense will load up the box every play and force Ryan to beat them. I don't like his odds. The money is quickly going on the Bears (line has moved 1.5 points).
Confidence: 3.5/5

NY Giants -7.5 over Browns

Can anyone explain why the Browns are only 7.5 point dogs on this one? Is it the home field? The 19 points they dropped on Cincy? Did anybody even watch the Giants play last week? Burress is back this week, and the defense was superb last week. Cleveland was a sexy pick this off-season, but people should be realizing that they might have been using some smoke and mirrors last year. Could this game be the end of DA? The Giants should roll over Cleveland easily.
Condifence: 4.0/5

Ah, Hindsight

2008-10-05T16:42:00.000-07:00

I'll take 4-1-1 for a week, but changing a "best bet" from a winner to a loser sure doesn't feel too smart. Here are a couple thoughts from the morning and afternoon games.

As expected, Cincy played a bit tougher with Palmer at the helm, and won ATS. Always important to check critical, game-time decisions before you make your picks. I failed to do this in the Bears game (Charles Tillman actually played) and it cost me.

What in the world is wrong with the Chargers? People (myself included) were willing to give them a pass the first 4 weeks, but losing to Miami is making it start to look like that the Chargers might be average, at best. Is Denver really the team to beat in the AFC West? I know Merriman was a great player, but the defense has completely unraveled and I don't think you can place all of the blame on his absence.

Carolina is looking better every week. Great run game, Delhomme and Steve Smith are connecting like they did in 2006. They look like the strongest team in the NFC South now.

Are the Giants that good or the Seahawks that bad? The champs are making a strong case to be considered the best team in the NFC East. Week 9 should be a great showdown with Dallas coming to town.

Arizona vs Whoever is starting to look like an automatic over.

Stayed tuned for some fantasy news and thoughts later this week.

Week 5 Pick Revisions

2008-10-04T18:33:00.000-07:00

Best bet is now: Chargers -6.5 over Miami
downgrade Bears pick to 3.5/5 confidence due to injuries/suspensions to defense

remove Dallas from picks due to likelihood of Palmer starting, replaced with New England -3 over San Francisco

The Early Line

2008-10-02T20:20:00.001-07:00

Picking games is part art and part science. You can find all of the data in the world to help you make your picks, the only problem is, you can find enough data to go either way. That's where the art comes in. Everyone out there has their own system; some people "follow the money," other people are looking at weather reports, other people develop their own handicapping system with some sort of excel spreadsheet- everyone is different.

When people ask me how I make my picks, I tell them I don't really have a set system. As an avid fantasy football player, I'm up to date on player stats, injuries, who's hot and who's not. As a fan of the game, I'm looking at box scores for all the games every week, trying to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team just for the sake of knowing these things. And sometimes, as a gambler, there's just a game you want to bet on and no rhyme or reason to explain it.

The one belief that I hold is that odds-makers and the general public (whose betting trends move the lines) are skeptical. It takes more than one game for them to be convinced that a team is bad, good, or just different from the general perceptions created in the media. Unless there is some sort of devastating injury, it takes time for people adjust their expectations. This is where I see my opportunity- I analyze the games with my aforementioned criteria and try to identify games where I feel the statistical data, game film, and box scores don't support the line. So far I'm off to a slow start this season (10-14 overall) but 3-1 on my best bet isn't too bad, and the season is still young and full of surprises.

Here's my take on some of the early lines this for Week 5 (using the Thursday morning line). Oh, and I'll use a confidence rating to give you a gauge on how strongly I feel on a game. A 1 means I might make a friendly wager with you, 5 means I'm putting my rent check on the line. I'll also go in-depth on two games, my top two picks of the week, then list the remaining picks I like in brief. Sort of feeling out the format here, as this is the first weekly posting.

Featured Picks

Best Bet: BEARS -3.5 over LIONS

The Bears are playing great ball right now. they gave up 2 games they would/could/should have won against the Panthers and Bucs, but handled the Eagles and Colts. Sure, they're on the road against Detroit, but does that even matter? The Lions are 0-3 ATS, falling to the Falcons, Packers, and Niners. The Bears D should suffocate them and Matt Forte is poised to have the best game of his young career against the soft Lions run defense (remember Michael Turner rolling for 220 yards in week 1?). I don't know why this line is only 3.5. I'd spot the Bears a touchdown, at least. This pick is a no-brainer.
Confidence: 5/5

CHARGERS -6.5 over DOLPHINS

Yes, the Dolphins beat New England when they were 13 point dogs. I'm not a believer. And yes, the Chargers have looked pretty weak, and only covered against Oakland on a miraculous, clock-killing run play. However, the Chargers are getting healthier. LT is looking better each week, center Nick Hardwick came back last week, and Stephen Cooper comes back from his suspension this week. Just like last year, the Chargers have started slow. I still think they will develop into the contender everyone though they would be. Miami matches up poorly with San Diego. They have the 26th ranked pass defense, and will be facing Gates, Chambers, Jackson, and LT. While their run defense is ranked 10th, they haven't faced any good running teams yet (NY Jets, Cardinals, Pats). Look for the San Diego offense to put this one away early. I also expect their defense to take advantage of the matchup and try to show everyone they're not one of the worst in the league.
Confidence: 4/5

Quick Picks

COLTS -3 over TEXANS

The Colts can't be that bad, can they? This game has the makings of a shootout. The Colts defense is looking pretty bad, and the Texans simply can't find a way to get anything going. The Colts will likely run a bit more of a ball control offense this week to keep their defense fresh and slow down the Texans. Addai should be in for a monster game, and at worst, I see this game being a push.
Confidence: 3/5

TITANS -3 over RAVENS

Hmm, there sure are a lot of road favorites this week. The Titans are one of them, but trust in their defense. I don't think Albert Haynesworth and the Titans are worried about Joe Flacco. Or anyone. This defense is dominant. It'll likely be a low-scoring affair, and the 3 points may feel like 7, but I like the odds of Tennessee turning this game into a route with a couple of big plays on defense and special teams.
Confidence: 3/5

NY GIANTS -7 over SEAHAWKS

For those of you who "follow the money," do the opposite. This line opened at 9, and has since moved to 7. And this was Thursday morning. I can understand some of the logic; Seattle is getting Engram and Branch back, they had a nice, restful bye-week to heal up, and they beat the crap out of the Rams in week 3. And, Plax is out for NY. Still, Seattle is terrible on the road, and the Giants offense will do better than people think without Plax.
Confidence: 2.5/5

COWBOYS -17 over BENGALS

1. Dallas is going to run the ball 30 times this week, both to show the world TO does not call the plays and because they realized how dumb they were for calling 11 runs the entire game last week. Coincidentally, their run defense is ranked 28th, allowing 160+ yards a game. Fantasy owners of Marion Barber, rejoice!
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely starting for the Bengals. Who? The same guy who managed 12 points against Cleveland, that's who.
Confidence: 2/5

Better Lucky Than Good

2008-09-28T19:43:00.000-07:00

I've returned from my hiatus. I spent most of my football thoughts today lamenting the first quarter of the season gone by... 7-11-0 ATS my first 3 weeks of a pool... One "serious" fantasy football team staring a 2-2 record in the face, though I've scored the most points in the league. My other "serious" team going to a cool 0-4, after benching Ronnie Brown in week 3 and Steven Jackson in week 4. As I wondered why nothing goes right, the Chargers, my lock/best bet/"sure thing" this week were killing the clock, up by 3 against Oakland when they went off as a 7 point favorite, I watched LT break for a needless touchdown. Needless for the Chargers, but they went from missing the spread by 4 to covering by 3 on that play and salvaged what would have been a miserable week for me. They say it's better to be lucky than good, and sometimes, they're right. Just keep in mind for all the bad breaks you catch, you're bound to get a good one every now and again.

Sunday is not the normal day I'll be posting, but I wanted to get back in the saddle and get the blog going again. Hopefully my half-dozen readers haven't abandoned me. I'll try to post my picks early this week, as well as some fantasy thoughts at some point on the weekend.

Noteworthy News:

Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans: A friend called me late last night seeking some line-up help. I recommended picking up Lance Moore and benching Brian Westbrook. Lance had a huge day (7 rec, 101 yds, 2TDs) and should be picked up. He'll be solid as long as Colston and Shockey are out.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay: He's telling people he separated his shoulder. Tests to come tomorrow. He has a tasty matchup against Atlanta next week, if he's healthy.

Brett Favre, QB, NY Jets: Sell high. 6TDs? SIX?!? No way. It's all downhill from here. Maybe Favre can keep it together and do what he did last year, but I think he'll have a meltdown at some point.

Larry Johnson, RB, KC Chiefs: Holy crap! Avoiding him on draft day doesn't seem so smart anymore, does it?

Steve Slaton, RB, Houston: He didn't do well running this week but he sure did catch. If he's available in your league, he's worth picking up. He's put together two consecutive good weeks and has a nice matchup next week (Indy).

Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona: Ouch. That hit was nasty. Early word is nothing major (like paralysis or broken bones) but I'm sure he has a concussion. He'll probably miss some time. Steve Breaston could be a good pickup after a solid day today.

Noteworthy Gambling News:

That was a classic trap game for Denver. Also some a matchup issue, as their run defense is still a bit soft. I like them to rebound at home against Tampa next week. I imagine the line will be Denver -4 or -5. This game will serve as a good wake-up call.

Carolina is looking pretty consistent. I would expect a similar performance next week against the Chiefs, should be an easy pick if the line opens up less than -7, which is possible due to today's upset.

Who can beat Tennessee right now? They look like legitimate contenders with Collins at the helm. The odds-makers haven't been believers as of yet.

Arizona is fast coming down to earth, and losing Boldin won't help. I wouldn't expect them to play Buffalo tough next week.

NFC East Division games are becoming increasing tough to bet. It looks like anything is possible in this division. I don't remember ever seeing a division this competitive since the NFL the divisions were restructured.

Defensive Rankings

2008-08-07T19:52:00.000-07:00

While some will target defenses earlier in fantasy drafts (rounds 6-9) I prefer to hold out til after the 10th. Defenses are slightly easier to predict than kickers, which doesn't say much. There are a few easy picks each season, but beyond that, it can become tricky to identify the "sleeper" defense out there, and many trendy/expert/sexy picks tend to deteriorate due to injury, poor offensive support, or some other reason. So, while I don't advocate spending too early of a pick on one, it can't hurt to try to get a decent one and then then just pick up whoever is playing the worst offense in the league in your bye week.

1) Minnesota- This is the consensus #1 defense this year. They were already the best run-stopping unit in the league, and Jared Allen will help bolster the pass rush. The secondary is still week, but this defense should make teams one-dimensional early in games and rack up sacks, turnovers, and keep the points scored low.

2) San Diego- Last year: 1st in INTs (30). 2nd in Fumbles Recovered (18). 5th in Sacks (42). They didn't lose much in the off-season and have a great young nucleus of players. They also make a safe pick for you defense.

3) Pittsburgh- This unit is well-rounded and has great support from its offense. They might not be the flashiest defense, and their turnover numbers are lower than others, but they are consistent and improving.

4) New York Giants- I'm still not convinced they're as good as they played during the playoffs, but it's hard to deny their pass-rushing capability. Strahan is done, but Tuck will become an every down lineman this year. The weak link here is the secondary, which should continue to improve as young players like Aaron Ross and rookie Kenny Phillips develop.

5) New England- The best defense is a good offense? The Pats better hope so. The defense is aging, Asante Samuel is gone. At least Jerod Mayo finally brings some youth to the AARP card-carrying line-backing corps.

6) Jacksonville- A new defensive coordinator should improve this unit. While no particular area stands out, none is particularly weak, either. The conservative offense will help keep the defense fresh and points against down.

7) Tennessee- As long as Albert is healthy, this defense is good. They lost a good pass rusher in Antwan Odom in the off-season and they have a few young players, but they should be able to stop the run and get to the passer, both critical for long-term success.

8) Dallas- "Patriots Lite." The defense is a little better and the offense is a little worse than the Pats, but their biggest strength is having an offense than can absolutely bury a team in the first half, which makes for easy sacks and INTs in the second half.

9) Chicago- Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This defense is a prime example of what happens to a great defense when it's paired with an absolutely atrocious offense. They still have the talent in place to be the top unit in the league, but unfortunately, their inept offense will wear them down before long, and the division is quickly becoming tougher.

10) Seattle- A consistently underrated defense (even in these rankings!). They had the 4th most sacks and INTs last season, and even 3rd most fantasy points in default formats. Yet for some reason, they never get too much attention going into the season. They benefit from a weak division.

11) Philadelphia- Here's a good defense to take a gamble on. They did poorly last year, but they added Asante Samuel this year and didn't trade Lito Sheppard. Their secondary is absolutely loaded which will allow them to load up in the box and shut down the run. They should improve drastically this year.

12) San Francisco- Yes, this is a bit of a homer pick, but hear me out. They have one of the best young linebackers in the league with Patrick Willis. They're not nearly as injured as last year, they made another big free agent move with Justin Smith, and Nate Clements is still playing corner. If they can get any help from the offense, I think they could easily be in the top 12 given the weak divisional opponents they'll get to play. They make a sneaky/risky/brave/stupid DEF2 pick.

Summer of Favre

2008-08-06T20:40:00.000-07:00

This summer, there has been one story line - Brett Favre. Unlike a normal summer, in which we hear sugar-coated training camp stories from various teams, Favre has dominated every Sports Center broadcast, every SI article, and even water-cooler conversations at the office. Those looking to catch some training camp news and perhaps identify a sleeper or two (myself included) are frustrated at having our interests put on the back-burner for an absolute circus in Green Bay.

While I haven't taken the time to create a comprehensive ranking sheet for the skill positions, I will mention a few players I like for each position in this posting, and I'll be working on a top-12 team defense/special teams ranking list and have that up in the near future. Hopefully, as we're getting closer to prime drafting time, I'll have completed a ranking system for each position (top 25? not sure). I'll keep you all updated with that.

Also, once the season begins, I will have at least one weekly posting with my picks of the week and probably a brief, fantasy oriented, sit/start column, also weekly. The summer may have been a little slow, but we'll be fully ramped up into the regular season here in no time.

PLAYERS I LIKE FOR VARIOUS REASONS

QB

1) Carson Palmer, Cincinnati- Sure, lots of people like Carson Palmer. I get the feeling though, after a season that didn't live up to lofty fantasy expectations last year, and all the CJ madness after the season, that he will be slightly under-valued. If you can snag him with a 4th or 5th round pick, you'll be getting a great value.

2) Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia- He's not the most popular guy given his past couple seasons, but he had a solid finish last year (4 games, 7 TDs, 1 INT). While he still has mediocre receivers, the offense is built around Brian Westbrook (who should also have a monstrous season if he remains healthy). I think Donovan is probably near the bottom of the top 10 QBs this year, but might be able to be had with a later pick in some drafts because of his injury history

3) Alex Smith, San Francisco- He certainly can't get much worse. Moreover, if Mike Martz can turn Jon Kitna into a top 5 fantasy QB, there's hope for Alex. I consider him a risky QB2 selection with upside.

4) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay- He's been the real victim out of the Brett Favre fiasco, so he has karma on his side. Also, I can't help but thinking of what happened with Joe Montana and Steve Young. The kid has no track record, other than the game against Dallas last season, but he could be a worthwhile QB2 in deeper leagues.

RBs

1) Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants- I liked him last year, and still like him this year. He's good... when he plays.

2) Marion Barber, Dallas- I wasn't too keen on him early in the off-season, but it sounds like with Julius Jones leaving town, it'll be the Marion Barber show with a much smaller dose of Jones (Felix). He could be a TD machine this season, given how potent the offense is.

3) Frank Gore, San Francisco- He was a border-line bust last year. However, Martz knows how to build an offense around a versatile RB (See: Marshall Faulk, 1999-2002) and while the O-line is young, I would anticipate some improvement in their play.

4) Jamal Lewis, Cleveland- He'll be steal if he repeats or improves upon last year's numbers.

5) Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh- The new version of the Old, TD-Vulturing Jerome Bettis.

WRs

1) Vincent Jackson, San Diego- Chambers will open up the field for Jackson as he improves.

2) Chad Johnson, Cincinnati- Hopefully he'll be the NFL version of Kobe Bryant and light up the stat-sheet after looking like a moron the entire off season.

3) Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh- The progression of the Ward-Holmes tandem is paralleling that of the Harrison-Wayne tandem in Indy; it's just a season or two behind.

4) Patrick Crayton, Dallas- He should benefit greatly from the departure of Terry Glenn, and there should be plenty of TDs to go around in Dallas.

TEs

1) Chris Cooley, Washington- Jason Campbell's development is coming along nicely.

2) Ben Utecht, Cincinnati- He was stuck behind Dallas Clark in Indy and should be a big factor underneath for the Bengals as their starting TE.

3) Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans- Another weapon for a pass heavy offense. And their defense didn't get much better, so they should continue to throw the ball a ton. Shockey has always been talented, and now should be more motivated.

Early Mock Draft

2008-06-29T20:00:00.000-07:00

It seems like just a few days ago the NFL draft hype-machine was in full swing and fantasy drafts were too distant to even think about. Lo and behold, it's mid-June, and fantasy leagues are opening for business. While most serious leagues don't draft until mid-August or later, a "warm-up" draft, as I call it, is a great way to practice your draft strategy, get an early read on ADPs, and get warmed up for your money league drafts.

My draft strategy is always fairly basic; I draft value in the early rounds (read: in the first 5 rounds, I take the top of my board over position/need) and prefer to gamble in the later rounds on rookies, sleeper picks, etc.

The following draft occurred in a Yahoo public league, with 10 teams, standard scoring, with NO PPR. I had the 9th selection in odd rounds, and 2nd selection in even rounds. I'll include my picks below, with commentary on who was available and why I chose that particular player.

Round 1, Pick 9: RANDY MOSS, WR, New England
Other players considered: Frank Gore

This was probably my most controversial pick. Frank Gore was also available, with Clinton Portis or Ryan Grant likely to fall to me after the turn. I went with Moss because this is not a PPR league. I think Gore will have a much better season this year, but I don't expect his rushing totals to be near '06 levels. I do believe he'll have an increase in receptions, but that does not help as much in a non-ppr league.
Moss will still be a TD machine this year in New England, and was my #1 WR.

Round 2, Pick 12: RYAN GRANT, RB, Green Bay
Other players considered: None.

Wtih Gore and Portis gone, and no WR worthy of this slot, Grant was my man. I would consider Brady in this spot in future drafts, but he was taken with the #3 (!!) pick overall. Grant was the last back remaining in my top tier of RBs. He's got fresh legs, had a phenomenal second half of last year, and Green Bay should still have a solid offense even with Favre gone. If nothing else, Favre's retirements should lead to Grant getting more touches. Still, he is the last back I would consider a solid RB1.

Round 3, Pick 29: JAMAL LEWIS, RB, Cleveland
Other players considered: Brandon Marshal, Chad Johnson

I was thrilled when Jamal fell to me with this pick. Quality RBs had all but disappeared by this point. Brandon Jacobs had gone earlier in the third round, and Lewis was in the middle of what I considered to be tier 2 RBs. Cleveland did nothing to replace him, and he had a very good year last year (1300+ yds, 9 rushing TDs). Cleveland made a big splash in free agency and trading, improving both the offense and defense, and Jamal should be able to duplicate his performance from last season. I considered Brandon Marshall as he has WR1 upside, and also Ocho Cinco, but decided against them as Marshall, Torry Holt, and Chad Johnson were on the board with only 2 picks until my next one.

Round 4, Pick 32, CHAD JOHNSON, WR, Cincinnati
Other players considered: None

I couldn't believe my luck with this pick after the Jamal Lewis pick. People tend to worry too much about hold outs, unhappy players, etc, in every sport. Good players play and produce, even when they want a new contract or to be traded. Aside from the Eagles suspending TO, when is the last time a stud player refused to play during the season? Chad Johnson was a top 3 WR going into last year, and the third most yards, and 8 TDs. Even with him being unhappy in Cincy, he's going to play, and they're going to throw them the ball. Him falling to the 4th round was ridiculous, and resulted in my good fortune.

Round 5, Pick 49, DONOVAN MCNABB, QB, Philadelphia
Other players considered: Calvin Johnson, Michael Turner

This pick was the first pick I was truly excited about. McNabb is a big risk/reward pick here. He seems oft injured lately, but he did play the final 4 games of '07 with 6 TDs and 1 INT. With all of the elite and even solid QBs gone, I felt there was a big drop-off after McNabb. Bulger was available, but I worry about his health, and that of his O-Line, and the age/quality of his receivers, so I felt more comfortable going out on a limb for McNabb, and hoping for a quality QB2. I briefly considered Calvin Johnson here, but I was already stacked at receiver. Turner seemed like a good value here as well, but ultimately, I felt like the values were about even, and my starting RBs were already set.

Round 6, Pick 52, MICHAEL TURNER, RB, Atlanta
Other players considered: None

This was an easy pick. A clear-cut starting RB on the board is always valuable, even when he's in a terrible offense. Calvin Johnson was taken the pick before this one, so there weren't any receivers worth the pick here. I think Atlanta will be terrible, but the first play Matt Ryan will learn in practice will be "Hand the ball to Michael Turner." I love him as a RB3 and he should provide some decent matchup opportunities throughout the season.

Round 7, Pick 69, CHRIS CHAMBERS, WR, Miami
Other players considered: San Diego (team defense)

I felt this was another exceptional value this late. In little over half a season with the Chargers' offense, Chambers compiled 970 yards and 4TDs. If Rivers gets more consistent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Chambers jump to 1100+ yards and 6-10 TDs on the season. Even if his numbers stayed the same, he's still a fine WR3 on a fantasy squad.
I briefly considered taking the Chargers' Defense, but the 7th round just didn't seem like a good value. Worst case scenario, I'll take a defense late, and play the matchups.

Round 8, Pick 72, JAY CUTLER, QB, Denver
Other players considered: None

I was ready to take the SD Defense here, and naturally, they were taken the pick before mine. Cutler fit perfectly into my plans; I feel he's a great QB2, which is what I needed with the risky McNabb as my QB1. Cutler posted a 20:14 TD:INT ratio last year, with about 3500 yards passing. He's entering his third season, and I expect him to continue progressing... Having watched a number of his games, he certainly has moments where he looks like a great passer, but he also has many moments where he looks like a young QB learning the game. With a little polish, he'll be QB1 material in another season or two, and may even be rated as a QB1 this season in favorable matchups.

Round 9, Pick 89, VERNON DAVIS, TE, San Francisco
Other players considered: Jonathan Stewart

Heath Miller was taken with the pick before mine, which pissed me off greatly. I don't really like Veron Davis as a fantasy TE, as he's been nothing but hype so far. However, Mike Martz supposedly likes him and is thinking about lining him up as a WR in certain situations. Moreover, this could actually work as Davis can run a 4.38 forty, and he's 6'3". So why not take the gamble and hope to get another TE/WR, a la Marques Colston a couple of years ago? I considered taking Jonathan Stewart, but the RB4 on my team isn't going to get much playing time regardless, so Davis seemed like a good risk/reward pick.

Round 10, Pick 92, TENNESSEE (Team Defense)

The Tennessee defense is greatly underrated. If the Titans can go 10-6 in a division with Indy, Jacksonville, and Houston, AND Vince Young is their QB...?!? They won just about every game because of their defense (with the exception of Rob Bironas' 8FG game). Chicago, Dallas, New England, New York, Jacksonville, and San Diego, were all picked before I took Tennessee, so I was pretty happy they fell to me here.

Round 11, Pick 109, ANTHONY GONZALEZ, WR, Indianapolis

A WR4, with upside. If Marvin Harrison goes to jail or gets injured, Gonzalez could have some value, otherwise, he's a bye-week fill in at best.

Round 12, Pick 112, FRED TAYLOR, RB, Jacksonville

I was surprised to find Fred here. Apparently everyone is thinking MoJo will take over this year, but we all thought that last year, too. Why not take him as a RB4 and see if he continues to hold the reigns?

Round 13, Pick 129, ISAAC BRUCE, WR, San Francisco

He may be my fantasy WR5, but he's the WR1 for the 49ers. I don't expect much of him, but he could be a solid bye week fill-in with a favorable matchup.

Round 14, Pick 132, JEFF REED, K, Pittsburgh

I broke the one law I set for myself: never take a kicker before the last round. I only did this with supreme confidence my last pick would not be selected.

Round 15, Pick 149, JOHN CARLSON, TE, Seattle

A major TE sleeper. He's looked good in mini-camp so far, and the early word is he's the favorite to take over as TE1 in Seattle's offense.

Early Rookie Fantasy Rankings

2008-04-29T15:16:00.000-07:00

The draft has come and gone, and came and went at a mercifully quicker pace than it did last year. Changing the allotted times for picks in the draft has probably been the best decision Goodell has made as commissioner.

There weren't too many surprises initially, but then a flurry of trades ensued, leaving mock drafts everywhere in shambles. Overall, it felt like teams were not so big on skill positions this year; 15 ( O and D ) linemen were chosen in the 1st round, and we're left with a feeling that maybe the Giants convinced more than a few GMs that pass-rushing wins championships.

Nonetheless, there were some intriguing rookies selected that could have a fantasy impact in their first year. I'll break them down by each of the positions (QB/RB/WR/TE). You'll notice when reading this that most players I consider to be "worth a roster spot" or "good for building depth." Generally, you shouldn't draft rookies with high expectations, as they rarely produce outstanding numbers. There are always exceptions, but I'm not about to make a rookie my RB1, even if that means I'll miss out on the occasional Adrian Peterson caliber of player.

QUARTERBACKS

Players worth a pick: None

Players to forget about (for this year, anyway) : All

Rookie quarterbacks rarely do well. Even when they win games, a la Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, the stats aren't amazing (he threw for 17 TD, 11 INT, 2621 yards)... So, at best, you might get a serviceable QB2 for your fantasy squad. Let some other chump take the rookie QBs and get yourself someone with more upside, like a Cutler or a Leinart.

RUNNINGBACKS

Players worth a pick:

Darren McFadden, Oakland- The first back off the board should at least split carries in Oakland. He will likely be over-valued in drafts, but Oakland, as bad as they were on offense, still managed to have an effective ground game from time to time. Run DMC makes for a risky RB3, but someone will take him hoping he's this year's Adrian Peterson. If you can manage to grab him as a RB4, he's well worth it there.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina- This pick marks the official demise of DeAngelo Williams as a feature back. Good pick by Carolina, as Stewart's stock fell from his toe surgery. At 5'11, 235, and a 4.48 forty, I think he'll post Stephen Davis (who was 6'0, 230) like numbers in Carolina's offense. I would temper your expectations for his rookie year, as he'll likely be sharing the ball with DeAngelo Williams. If Carolina can get Delhomme healthy and their passing game in order, I expect Stewart to make for a solid RB3/Flex as he'll get the majority of goal-line touches.

Felix Jones, Dallas- Still the Barber-Jones combo, just with a different Jones now. Hopefully Felix can be more consistent that Julius was in that offense. Due to the fact Barber will be the feature back, I can't see Jones contributing fantasy wise as more than roster depth or a bye-week fill-in, but he'll have some production in his rookie season.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh- This is bad news for Willie Parker. He already had trouble getting TDs last year (count them, 2...) and it the Steelers taking Mendenhall signify that they are more than willing to use someone else to cross the goal-line. Mendenhall is a sneaky pick in TD heavy leagues.

Matt Forte, Chicago- Somehow, Cedric Benson ended up with a shorter leash than Rex Grossman. I find that puzzling, but Forte is in position to take over primary duties for Chicago. The coaches are already touting him as a "three down back." If Benson doesn't come up with a good camp, he'll be relegated to a backup role in a hurry. At this point, Forte looks like a RB3 with RB2 upside.

Ray Rice, Baltimore- He'll be a handcuff for Willis McGahee owners.

Kevin Smith, Detroit- Someone has to carry the ball out there. Tatum Bell might steal some carries, but aside from that, it's his show. As he was drafted in the third round, he might go unnoticed by novice fantasy owners. He's worth a spot in deep leagues. Again, I'll go with RB3 with RB2 upside, since Detroit will likely make a more concerted effort to run the ball this year.

Marcus Thomas, San Diego- The new Michael Turner? The Chargers gave up a 2009 2nd round pick for him, which seems odd, given he was selected in the 5th round. A.J. Smith must have seen something he likes. Draftable as a LT handcuff.

Players to forget about:

Chris Johnson, Tennessee- The Titans collect RBs like Detroit used to collect WRs. The backfield is too crowded for anyone to stand out. He may be worth a late round flier, but don't hold your breath.

Steve Slanton, Houston- With Ahman Green and Chris Brown ahead of him, he'll only play if injuries devastate the RB group again (which is a possibility, with that group).

Ryan Torain, Denver- As a Bronco, he gets special mention here since the whole world is convinced he'll be the next big thing. Not this year.

And all of the ones I didn't mention.

WIDE RECEIVERS

I don't really have high hopes for any in this years group, but I'll mention a couple. I would consider all of these worth a late selection, as your 5th or 6th WR.

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia- A bonus if your league counts returns. Seeing as Philly made Kevin Curtis productive, Jackson will have a chance to line up in the slot and get some catches.

James Hardy, Buffalo- This kid is TALL (6'6"). Given the fact Buffalo doesn't really have a good second receiver, he may have an opportunity to line up as the WR2 across from Lee Evans. Sleeper potential, here.

Malcom Kelly and Devin Thomas, Washington- One of them will likely develop into the WR2 this season.

Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh- Could develop into a redzone threat, but will be stuck behind Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward for now.

Early Doucet, Arizona- Worth keeping an eye on in case Boldin gets traded.

Tight Ends

Worth a pick:

John Carlson, Seattle- He'll likely beat out Putzier and Heller and be the new starting TE. Worth stashing as a TE2 and seeing if anything happens.

Dustin Keller- New starting TE for the Jets... if only their offense was better...

The rest will be buried as TE2s.

That's all for the draft article. These rankings will surely change as these players develop with their new teams, so keep an eye on the players mentioned here over the summer.

Free Agency Breakdown

2008-03-30T22:13:00.000-07:00

Welcome to what will probably be my longest post, ever.

A team by team breakdown of notable free agent signings (and trades!) for 2008 is coming at you. I'll include a brief one or two sentence analysis pertaining to the fantasy impact of that particular signing or trade. Only new additions to the team (read: no resigns will be mentioned) will be noted. I will ignore obviously inconsequential (in fantasy terms, anyway) signings, such as Rb3s, old and done QB2s, etc.

I have also left out defensive signings. I will address those later in the year in a comprehensive defensive ranking.

If any more notable free agent pickups happen later in the year, I will post them.

Other than that, enjoy the update and I will post again after the draft.

Cincinnati Bengals

Ben Utecht, TE: A promising young TE who won't be stuck behind Dallas Clark any longer. He's had over 30 receptions his past two seasons with the Colts, and should put up low-end TE1 numbers in the Bengals' offense. He drafts as a mediocre TE1 with high upside.

Buffalo Bills- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Indianapolis Colts- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Chicago Bears

Marty Booker, WR: Welcome back, Marty! Since you left Chicago after 2003, the Bears managed to get quarterbacks worse than Kordell Stewart and get rid of any receivers who done something significant in their career. Enjoy lining up across from Brandon Lloyd and catching balls from Grossman/Orton/the next terrible QB that comes to Chicago!
Worth a roster spot in deep leagues, nothing more.

Brandon Lloyd, WR: Ironic that his glory days got left behind back in San Francisco... Not draftable.

Philadelphia Eagles

Dan Klecko, FB: He'll be the new lead blocker for Brian Westbrook. Huzzah. No fantasy value.

Green Bay Packers- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Oakland Raiders-

Javon Walker, WR: Ah, Oakland. Where WRs go to die. As much as I was on the Javon Walker bandwagon last season, I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole this season. Oakland is a mess, as usual. I would be surprised if he puts up WR3 numbers, especially if his knee problems continue. Draft him at your own peril. Personally, I wouldn't take him as anything higher than a WR4.

St. Louis Rams

Josh Brown, K: I will never advocate drafting kickers in any round other than the last, but, if you can pick Josh Brown with your last pick, he should do well kicking in a dome.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jerry Porter, WR- As previously mentioned, Oakland is where receivers go to die. Getting out of there should resurrect Porter's career, and Jacksonville suddenly has a solid trio of receivers. Porter should be a great buy-low candidate. Aim for a WR3 selection on him and he should have WR2 upside.

Troy Williamson, WR- Williamson failed to live up to expectations in Minnesota, but it's hard to put all the blame on him with Tavaris Jackson at QB. The speedster will likely battle for the third or fourth wide receiver spot on the roster. He's worth a late round pick in deep leagues.

Minnesota Vikings

Bernard Berrian, WR: Amazingly, he's probably worse off than he was in Chicago. He becomes the primary option in a weak group of receivers with a terrible QB. Draft him as a WR4 or 5, if you must, but be prepared for more than a few 2 catch, 20 yard days.

Washington Redskins- No noteworthy offensive signings

Denver Broncos

Keary Colbert, WR: Coming into his 5th season, Colbert never developed into the WR2 the Panthers were hoping for. With Brandon Marshall as the number one receiver and Javon Walker departing, Colbert or Stokley will be the number two receiver on the Broncos. Don't be surprised if the Broncos draft a receiver early.
Colbert is not draftable in any format.

Arizona Cardinals- No noteworthy offensive signings.

New Orleans Saints- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Detroit Lions- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Cleveland Browns

Donte Stallworth, WR: I think this was a great sign for Cleveland. Joe gets to move down to the third WR spot, which he wants, and Donte gets to line up across from another explosive receiver, except this time Wes Welker won't be stealing all of his catches. I project WR3 or even borderline WR2 numbers from Stallworth if the Cleveland offense continues to produce.

Tennessee Titans

Alge Crumpler, TE: Once a top fantasy TE, now disposed of by the Falcons. Tennessee is a great landing spot for Alge, as he will become a safety valve for Vince Young (Michael Vick 2.0) in an offense that has typically generated a lot of production out of its TEs. I would put him at the bottom of the TE1 list.

Justin McCareins, WR: I would expect Justin to take over WR2 duties in Tennessee. If the offense gels a bit more this year and Vince Young improves, he may have some value, but belongs on your bench as a WR5, for now.

Dallas Cowboys- No noteworthy offensive signings.

San Francisco 49ers

Isaac Bruce, WR: While this signing didn't draw too much interest, Isaac Bruce immediately becomes San Fran's #1 receiver. He already knows the offense and there isn't much competition. If you believe in miracles and think the 49ers will be the new 2000/2001 Rams, then Isaac Bruce is worth a pick, but I'd temper your expectations to having him as a WR3, at best.

Bryant Johnson, WR: He'll have a chance at catching more balls with the Niners, but it's hard to project any value for him given the state of the SF offense last season. Don't draft him, but keep an eye on him in case the Niners' offense improves.

Miami Dolphins

Ernest Wiflord, WR: Coming over from Jacksonville, Wilford will be completely worthless fantasy-wise, just like every other member of the Dolphins offense, with the exception of Ronnie Brown, whose estimated worth is still up in the air.

Houston Texans

Chris Brown, RB: A good sign by the Texans as they are currently operating with Ron Dayne and Ahman Green. Serviceable, but I think they hope Chris Brown can be healthy and provide a long term solution. "Can be healthy" is the operative phrase here, as Brown is as injury prone as they come. However, since he runs well when he actually does play, he makes a sneaky pick as a RB4 if you like high risk/reward picks. If you're in a 12+ team league, I can see taking him as a RB3/flex.

Carolina Panthers

D.J. Hackett, WR: He's slated to be the second WR in the offense, behind Steve Smith. He should be a prominent figure in the red-zone and I project him to be worth a WR3 selection. Unless Delhomme gets hurt again, in which case he will be completely worthless.

Kansas City Chiefs- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner, RB- Michael Turner leaving the Chargers was the moment so many dynasty leaguers had been waiting for. Once he signed with the Falcons, they all cursed the football gods. Turner will be a focal point in the new smash-mouth offense taking shape in Atlanta, but he's in store for a rebuilding year or three. With Jerious Norwood likely getting some action on third downs, I think Turner will be over-valued by many in drafts this year. You could do worse for a RB2, but under optimal circumstances, I'd prefer to draft him as a RB3/flex option.

Jason Elam, K: Elam missed more FGs than we were used to last year, but still came through in the clutch. With a poor Falcons' offense, he should have a decent number of opportunities to kick, and will be kicking in a dome now. On a side note, I also predicted doom, gloom, and bad karma for the Broncos for allowing him to walk, and shortly after this, Brandon Marshall slips on a McDonald's bag during "consensual horseplay." Nice.

Pittsburgh Steelers- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Baltimore Ravens- No noteworthy offensive signings.

New York Giants- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Seattle Seahawks

Jeb Putzier, TE: Jeb Putzier flashed some talent in Denver, but never held on to a starting job. He's worth watching in Seattle as he could take over starting duties if Marcus Pollard continues to watch balls go through his hands, but he is not worth drafting.

T.J. Duckett, RB: He'll now be the thunder behind the Julius Jones lightning. Or Mo-Mo lightning. Not sure how the RB situation will pan out in Seattle, other than TJ Duckett is bigger than everyone else, and should vulture some TDs. Worth grabbing in the late rounds if you're in a deep TD league.

Julius Jones, RB: Goodbye, Shaun Alexandar. Hello, Julius. He could be worth something if he's starting, but until Seattle finishes getting rid of Shaun Alexandar and possibly Maurice Morris, it's hard to project value for him. Right now it looks like a RBBC with Morris, Jones, and Duckett.

Olindo Mare, K: He was atrocious last year, and Seattle will miss Josh Brown. There is no need to select him as your kicker. I wouldn't even select him as a K2, if you're one of those people who wastes a roster spot on a K2.

New York Jets

Alan Faneca, G: While offensive don't have a direct fantasy impact, we all know they are keys to production for the rest of the skill positions. Faneca is a solid addition at LG, and the left side for the Jets loots pretty imposing (Ferguson at LT). The Jets could very well take one of the top OL in the draft and could have a very good offensive line going into the season. As it stands now, this boosts the value of Thomas Jones/RB to be drafted. Maybe they'll be able to rush for a TD or two now.

Jesse Chatman, RB: Nothing more than a backup to Thomas Jones or RB that they draft. No value fantasy-wise.

San Diego Chargers- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Warrick Dunn, RB: He'll be a back up to Earnest Graham or Cadillac. No value.

New England Patriots- No noteworthy offensive signings.

Notable Coaching Changes

2008-02-25T23:11:00.000-08:00

The following list is a list of coaching changes and a quick blurb on fantasy impact for the respective team. I've only listed coaching changes that I feel will have a significant impact.

ATL: Mike Smith, new HC... At least they have a coach now, but it remains to see which, if any of their players, will be viable fantasy options.

BAL: John Harbaugh, new HC
Cam Cameron, new OC... Both of these are good hires for Baltimore, and overall, their coaching staff seems very well put together. Cam Cameron's offense should increase the value of Willis McGahee, regardless of the QB situation.

DET: Jim Colleto, new OC... The impact here is more about Mike Martz leaving- The Lions should have a more balanced attack next year, so temper your expectations for Kitna and the receiving group.

JAX: Greg Williams, new DC... Mike Smith left to coach ATL, and the Jags got a better defensive coordinator to replace him with. Williams did a solid job with the Redskin's defense the past couple seasons. Jacksonville already has a great D-Line in place, and if they bolster their defense in free agency and the draft, Williams might turn them into one of the top defensive units in the league.

SF: Mike Martz, new OC... People are saying Mike Martz won't work in San Francisco because of the lack of talent. However, people forget that the "Greatest Show on Turf" revolved around Marshal Faulk, a versatile back who ran and caught balls out of the backfield. He also developed Kurt Warner into a Super Bowl MVP. It may not seem like a good fit at first, but Martz can definitely improve QBs, and the Niners need that more than anything. The offense will probably revolve around Gore more than people think, and I expect Martz will do what he can to get SF to acquire a good receiver or three. I think Gore makes a great value fantasy draft selection if he falls to the late first round.

STL: Al Saunders, new OC... The offense can't do much worse than it did last year. I don't expect Saunders to work any miracles, but hopefully he can get the offensive unit in order and keep them from staging a mutiny against head coach Scott Linehan. The Rams should have a bounce-back year in 2008.

Washington: New everything... What a debacle this whole situation was. Jim Zorn seems to be respected around the league, and studied under Holmgren, so maybe there's some residual Bill Walsh in him. It's a big leap from QB coach to head coach, though. Not really sure how everything will pan out in Washington.

Miami: New everything... The talking heads on TV seem to think Bill Parcells will be coaching the Dolphins, when it in fact is Tony Sparano. Miami has a lot of rebuilding to do, though, and I think they're in for a long season regardless of the coaching staff. The only player worth considering from Miami is Ronnie Brown, and generally RBs coming off a torn ACL don't do so well.

That's it for the coaching changes. We have free agency coming on the 29th, so I'll probably post some updates on that in the near future.

The Aftermath

2008-02-04T23:10:00.000-08:00

That, my friends, was one of the best Super Bowls in a long time. Regardless of who you were rooting for, having a game of this magnitude come down to a drive inside the finally two minutes is as exciting as it gets. "The Play" or "Third and Five" or "Eli's Escape", whatever moniker that play ends up with, is the stuff of legend. if you haven't seen the highlight yet, look up "David Tyree catch" on youtube. Simply amazing for something like that to happen in that situation, but that's what it takes to beat the Patriots.

The Giants owe this victory to their defense. They did a great job of pressuring Brady and disrupting his timing. Five sacks is the most Brady has been sacked in any one game, and he'd only been sacked 21 times all season. They also did a great job of bottling up Maroney, who had been emerging more as a real running threat recently in the season. The decision to spy Kevin Faulk with a linebacker the whole game was critical as well.

In my pre-game post, I said it'd take an almost perfect game from the Giants to pull off the upset, and they managed to do it. They survived their own mistakes, including a terrible int, stalled drives, and a painful 12-men on the field penalty. Manning played a great game, and hopefully will have the New York media off his back for a little bit.

I hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl, I know I did. We'll be lucky if there's another one this good in the next decade. The focus of this blog will switch gears now. In a couple weeks I'll post the key off-season coaching changes and their fantasy impact, followed by any free-agent activity. Posts will be few and far between until the draft.

Hope everyone had a great season. Check back here periodically in the off-season and stay frosty for fantasy football- drafts aren't too far away (Anybody else want to do a June league?).

Super Sunday

2008-02-01T15:55:00.000-08:00

Sadly, football season is nearing an end. We'll now have a February-August of coaching changes, draft, free agency, trades, and speculation regarding all of the above. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the Owners and NFLPA will likely draw some attention this offseason, with current speculation that the owners may opt-out. As important as some of the offseason news is, it can't really fill the void that will now exist on Sundays.

As for this Sunday, I'm hoping we have a good game on hand. In recent years, there haven't been many blowouts in the Super Bowl. In 2001, The Ravens slaughtered the Giants, and in 2003, the Bucs crushed the Raiders. Aside from that, the games have been highly competitive this decade. I like the Giants and the points (currently +12) for this one on the virtue that since the week 17 game, the Giants have improved while New England seemingly has declined.

The Giants seem like a longshot to win it, but they've been a longshot every weekend since the Wildcard round. Their game plan has to be sustaining drives that lead to TDs, not FGs (just ask the Chargers what happens if you don't get TDs), and maintaining a good mix of defensive schemes in an effort to contain the Pats, just as San Diego did. If they can do that, they'll have a chance, but they will need to play virtually perfect football.

On the other side, you have to wonder if the Patriots are saving their best for last. They enjoyed destroying opponents and breaking records this year, so I wonder if we'll see them pull out all of the stops and try to get every Super Bowl record they can - points, passing TDs, margin of victory, etc. The two weeks off certainly benefited them a lot more than the Giants as they had extra time to get their veteran defense rested up and an extra week to game plan. Nonetheless, I feel like the performances we've seen from them since week 17 are a trend, and they are not playing on the same level they were when the season began.

Regardless of the outcome, history will be made this weekend. Either the Patriots will be 19-0, the best single season performance of any team in the history of the NFL, or the Giants will thwart them and become a footnote in the history books for doing so. This is the most historically significant Super Bowl since the 1990 game, when Joe Montana and the Niners won their 4th. That should make it a treat to watch regardless of who you're rooting for.

The pick for this game is made mostly off the basis of playoff momentum and watching both teams play the past few weeks. I don't really feel the need to break into much statistical analysis as it seems sort of moot. On the basis of statistics, the Giants have no business being in the Super Bowl, yet here they are. However, Eli has played great in the post-season, and I think they can give the Patriots a run for their money just like they did in week 17.

The Pick: Giants +12

Happy Super Bowl. If you don't like football, then enjoy the food and excuse to throw a party. Nothing like having a barbeque and deep fryer on hand to cook up some glorious game-day food. I've got Wings, Sausages, and home-made Chimichangas (with BBQ'd carne asada) on the menu for Sunday, so if the game isn't good, I'll just focus on eating.

Weekend Recap -- Oh, how the Mighty have fallen

2008-01-23T12:31:00.000-08:00

Who would have thought when we entered the wild card round that the lowly New York Giants would make it to the Super Bowl? They were underdogs in every game they played, and they'll continue to be an underdog in the Super Bowl. It looks like Eli Manning finally figured out how to play with consistency at just the right time. Along with the Packers, we've seen the Mighty Cowboys and Colts go down in upsets as well. The Giants will get one more chance at their greatest upset in about one and a half weeks.

As for the games this weekend, I only managed to field one pick (San Diego +14) and never really spent much time analyzing the Giants game as I was too busy enjoying all of the glorious food, alcohol, landmarks, and doughnuts that New York has to offer. Consequently, I finish this weekend 1-0, and will only have 10 picks total when the playoffs are done. It's not a bad thing to not pick a game, though. If you aren't confident or comfortable, you should stay away when it comes to betting, especially in the regular season. You will have plenty more opportunities to wager money in the future, and you'll be kicking yourself if you lose your shirt on a game you didn't really like.

On a side note, I asked a New Yorker why there was not any rioting in the streets after the Giants upset Green Bay. His response was, "It's too cold."
Seeing as it was about 15 degrees or so at the time, I couldn't blame him.

New England: 21 San Diego: 12

If the Chargers could have figured out how to score a touchdown, my dream of an underdog superbowl would have come true. The defense did a great job of containing Brady, though Maroney got loose in the second half as a consequence. Still, I don't see how they realistically could have expected a better job from their defense.

The offensive side of the ball is where the Chargers lost the game. They picked off Brady 3 times and had great opportunities inside the 10-yard line and simply couldn't score. The redzone is definitely where the loss of LT impacted the Chargers the most. He set the NFL record for TDs in a season, and while Turner-Sproles are serviceable backups, they don't have the same presence that LT does in the redzone. Ultimately the defense kept it close enough to be interesting, but the wounded offense did not have enough left in the tank. A pretty good game to watch overall, and the Patriots have looked more and more vulnerable every week in my opinion, especially on defense.

NY Giants: 23 Green Bay: 20 (overtime)

Lawrence Tynes is the happiest man in New York. I was watching the game in the city and a friend of a friend that was with me is a pretty passionate fan, and he was getting ready to round up a mob and hunt the kicker down. Luckily, Tynes got his act together and surprisingly made a 47-yarder to win the game.

Overall, I thought the Giants looked like the better team throughout the game. They moved the ball effectively and their defense did a pretty good job pressuring Favre and making stops. If it weren't for the 90-yard catch and run by Driver (I think him tossing the Giants CB to the ground surprised everyone), the game wouldn't have been close. The Packers just didn't look good. Grant was a non-factor, which I thought would happen a week ago against Seattle. The Giants seem to get better and better each week, and surprisingly, Aaron Ross was available which helps the secondary quite a bit. Green Bay will be a good team again next year if Favre comes back, and will benefit from the playoff experience this year.

The playoff this year have been great for the underdogs ATS. 2-2 in the wildcard round, 3-1 in the divisional round, and 2-0 in the championship round. The early line on the Superbowl is the Pats -12, and with the way the game went in week 17, and how the Giants have progressed since, it's hard not to like the Giants +12. If they can manage to win ATS, that would make the 'dogs 8-3 for the playoffs. While the favorites struggling generally favors Vegas and odds-makers, you can make great money on the moneyline in these games. Out of the 8 games in which the 'dogs covered, 4 of them were outright upsets, with spreads of +3, +7, +7.5, and +10. It's hard to predict upsets, but the trend makes it even harder not take the Giants and the points, with maybe even a small wager on the moneyline in the Super Bowl.

I'll probably make a few posts between now and the Super Bowl. I wanted to get my game recap in since I just arrived back in San Diego last night, and I hope everyone had a good Championship weekend. Following the Super Bowl, the purpose of this blog will shift gears to fantasy football, focusing on the draft, trades, free agency, etc. Once the regular season roles around next year, I'll try to maintain weekly updates of picks and fantasy recommendations... I'm thinking maybe a Thursday fantasy post and a Friday betting post. We'll see.

Early Look- One Touchdown or Two?

2008-01-15T14:57:00.000-08:00

I was watching some ESPN today and listened to everyone on there say San Diego has zero chance of winning this week. Ironic, considering they all said San Diego had zero chance of winning last week, as well. I don't think too many people saw the Chargers beating the Colts. Nobody sees them beating the Pats either, but this is the time of year where crazy things happened. If somebody out there has a perfect playoff bracket going, congratulations.

Looking at the lines, we have a 2 TD spread in the AFC game and a 1 TD spread in the NFC game. I'm still undecided on the Packers-Giants and need to watch some more highlights of the Giants-Cowboys game. However, 14 points seems like a lot for the Pats to cover. Their offense was next to perfect last week and they beat Jacksonville by 11. San Diego, injured as they may be, still field a decent offense. When these teams played in week 2, San Diego didn't have Chambers and it felt like the team was still trying to get chemistry together. If they're healthy enough to play good football, they should be able to hang around within a touchdown or two. They will need more fluke plays and timely turnovers if they want any chance of pulling a second consecutive upset.

Other than the games, not much more exciting news yet. Coaches are being fired and interviewed, but there hasn't been anything too surprising. The biggest news during the week will be the injuries to the Chargers and the Giants. Both of these teams need to hope for some medical miracles if they want to make it to the superbowl.

Weekend Recap --- Sunday, Bloody Sunday

2008-01-14T15:50:00.000-08:00

What a day of football. All was normal in the world on Saturday. The favorites were dominant and advanced easily. Then, Sunday happened. A double digit underdog, without it's key players, upsets the AFC 2 seed. A touchdown underdog with a QB nobody likes manages to go into Dallas and walk out victoriously. As easy as it is to pencil in the favorites for the conference championship games, days like Sunday are why they have to play the game first.

On to the games.

Seattle: 20 Green Bay: 42

Wow. That was some serious snow. What a dominant performance by Green Bay. I questioned Ryan Grant in my first post on the game and boy, did he respond- 207 rushing yards and 3 TDs. I obviously felt pretty good about my Seattle pick in the first quarter, but it was apparent by half-time that Favre and the Packers wouldn't be stopped. Favre escaping the sack and throwing an underhanded toss to his receiver for a first down (on third down, no less) was vintage Brett Favre. Seattle had a chance to keep it close, but the snow was hampering their pass game, epitomized by Pollard letting a TD pass when he was wide open go right through his hands. The weather is always an important factor in December and January football, and I didn't pay enough attention to it in this game.

Jacksonville: 20 New England: 31

Great offensive game. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, their defense didn't show up whatsoever, and no team is going to beat the Patriots is a purely offensive contest. Both teams ran the ball well, and that kept the game moving at a quick pace and left those with Jacksonville and the points little to worry about. The Patriots look unstoppable on offense, and the match-up with San Diego next week will probably provide another entertaining game.

San Diego: 28 Indianapolis: 24

Wow. What an upset. If someone would have told me Peyton would throw for 400+ yards and LT would be injured in the second quarter, and asked me to predict the score, I probably would have said Colts 42, Chargers 10. The Chargers D gave up a ton of yards but made plays when they needed to, and benefited from the Colts dropping balls or deflecting them into interceptions, fumbles, and the subsequent points the Colts let slip away. Still, during the game, I sort of had the feeling the Colts would eventually pull away, but they never did. They committed too many mistakes, and San Diego capitalized. And where in the world did Billy Volek come from? He didn't look good in relief duty earlier this year, but he was amazing on Sunday.

The Chargers earned this win just as much as the Colts gave it away. However, that pass defense needs to play quite a bit better next week if they even want to try to keep up with the Patriots.

NY Giants: 21 Dallas: 17

Apparently the Giants pass rush really is new and improved. They certainly got to Romo well enough (2 sacks, 10+ hits). That, combined with some key Dallas drops, was the difference in the game. Marion Barber ran well, but Romo only completed 50% of his passes. I didn't see this game in its entirety, but from what I saw, NY contained Dallas and Eli Manning managed the game, turn-over free. The offense was also the beneficiary of several Dallas penalties, which sustained touchdown drives. Overall, it was just a really disappointing performance by the Dallas offensive line and wide receivers. Romo will shoulder some of the blame, but it didn't really look like there was much else he could do.

Well, my picks didn't do well this weekend. I'd like to thank Wes Welker for dropping a pass which held the Pats to a field goal and kept me from going 0-4. These upsets will create lopsided lines next week. The Pats are at -14 right now and The Pack is at -7. I'm headed off to New York this Thursday, so I'll probably try to post on the games on Wednesday. Hope you enjoyed your weekend of football; even when the picks don't work out, at least it's still fun to watch this time of year.

Divisional Weekend, Part II

2008-01-11T12:08:00.000-08:00

NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The big news stories on this game so far have been:

1) Eli Manning played very well against New England and Tampa
2) Tony Romo went to Cabo for a weekend
3) The Giants have won 8 straight on the road

My response to all of those headlines is "So what?" Playing well against New England is fine. So did Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Indy. That's where the whole "any given Sunday" thing comes in.

Romo spent his weekend off in Cabo. So? He had the weekend OFF. Just because you or I can't go to Cabo for 2 days doesn't mean he can't. Would Peyton Manning have gone to Cabo? No. He would have watched games and studied film, I'm sure. Romo isn't Peyton though, and since everyone likes to compare him to Brett Favre, why don't they take a look at what he did early in his career? He used to party hard after every game, go out to bars, etc. If Romo would have spent his weekend at home sleeping, no one would care. It's just the media fishing for headlines.

And about those Giants on the road... the best two teams they beat were Washington (week 3, 9-7 reg season) and Philly (week 14, 8-8 reg season). Yawn.

This game is a perfect example of the "What have you done for me lately" mindset that the media has. Having virtually nothing to play for, Dallas has been sleep-walking the past few weeks. NY played two good games in week 17 and the Wildcard round. Dallas will wake up this week, with a healthy TO and rested team. They've already beat NYG twice this year, both times by 10+ points. NY plays this game with out Shockey, and Plax is far into a season that he's been playing with a torn ankle ligament. This should probably be another high scoring meeting, just like the first two, with Dallas coming on top by a 10-14 point margin.

The pick: Dallas -7

Jaguars @ Patriots (-13)

This is the toughest game of the week to predict, in my opinion. Part of me wonders if New England will be even better for the playoffs, that maybe they have another level they can take it to. The second half collapse of Jacksonville's defense last week doesn't arouse a lot of confidence in them either. However, their passing defense is ranked 15th, ahead of both the Eagles and the Ravens, who managed to hang tough against the Patriots. In all of the close New England games, we've seen physical teams running a very conservative, mistake-limiting offense. All of these teams have had a dynamic running back (Addai, Westbrook, McGahee, Jacobs). Jacksonville has a great game-managing QB and a pair of dynamic RBs. The game is really up to the Jaguar's defense. If they can keep the Pats from opening up a 14+ point lead early, they'll be able to run the ball for most of the game, which will be critical to them having any shot in this one. The Pats will almost certainly win, but I don't think they'll cover. I don't really have much analysis to fall back on this one... more of a hunch.

The Pick: Jags +13

Divisional Weekend

2008-01-10T22:18:00.000-08:00

Depending on your point of view, this may be the most exciting weekend of playoff football. The upsets are usually the most upsetting here, and we get to see the best teams of the regular season on the field again. It's only Thursday night, but here are my thoughts on a couple of the early lines.

Seattle @ Green Bay (-8)

Maybe I'm just not a believer in Favre, but part of me still isn't convinced by the Packers. Looking back at their schedule, I find nothing inspiring; since the 34-0 stomping they put on Minnesota, they haven't really beat any good teams. That beat down of Minnesota occurred in week 10. Since then, they've beaten Detroit (x2), Oakland, Carolina, St. Louis, and lost to Dallas and Chicago. Moreover, in that clunker of a game they played in Chicago, they lost any chance they had at home field advantage.

Other than Minnesota, none of the aforementioned teams have any sort of respectable run defense. How good is Ryan Grant? He's definitely a home-run hitting back, but his numbers have been boosted by those long runs. In three games, he ran for 15 or fewer attempts and had a average of over 6.7 yards per rush. The Seattle defense is ranked 12th against the rush and they held the Redskins 75 yards and 2.6 yards per rush. If Grant can't get running room, the game will be on Favre's arm, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but if Favre struggles like he did in Dallas and Chicago, Green Bay will have serious problems.

Favre, playoffs, Lambeau field, all in the same sentence, actually sound like quite a good thing. Personally, I think the Seahawks, are a sneaky pick this week. There's the whole Holmgren-Favre relationship, a Seattle offense that is dedicated to passing the ball (don't we know an AFC team that does that?), and the utter lack of playoff experience for most of the key players on the Packers.

The Seahawks +8 sounds pretty good to me. The only time The Pack has covered 8 points against a team with a winning record is week 2 against the Giants and week 10 against the Vikings. I don't know how confident I feel in calling a Seattle upset, but I feel pretty good about this game being within 6 points when it's all said and done. Probably worth waiting until Friday night or Saturday morning though... the money has been moving in the Packer's direction over the course of the week.

The pick: Seattle +8

San Diego @ Indy -9

Got a little long-winded in my GB-Seattle discussion. I think that it's the most interesting game of the weekend. San Diego at the Colts, however, will be less interesting.

The big problem here is that Antonio Gates is likely out. I just saw an update on Rotoworld (www.rotoworld.com) that there are rumors he'd be out for the AFC Championship even the Chargers somehow advanced, so it's probably not a Belichik-ish deception being run by the Chargers. Without Gates, I don't think this will even be a contest. The Colts D has been solid all year long, and for whatever reason, teams have had success stopping LT this year. Albert Haynesworth and th Titans held him to 42 yards on 21 carries. While many people will be quick to point out that Big Al is one of the, if not the best, defensive linemen in the league, Tomlinson has had several other miserable games this year-62 yards against GB, 40 against Minn, 62 against the Jags... and only 76 against the Colts earlier this year.

Speaking of that first meeting, what are the odds Peyton throws 6 interceptions again (or ever again in his career, for that matter)? The Chargers won that game on the virtue of Adam Vinatieri, the most clutch kicker of all time, missing a chip shot. So now, the Chargers go on the road into Indy, on turf, without Gates, against a much healthier Colts team that will likely be featuring Marvin Harrison? And the spread is only 9 points? I'll take the Colts please. Norv might have saved his job by beating the Titans, but the Chargers will be in the exact same spot as last year- out in the divisional round.

The Pick: Colts -9... Buy this one now, it opened at -7.5, and I could see it getting to -10 by Sunday.

Alright, that's it for the evening. I'll try to break down the other two games tomorrow.

Launch

2008-01-10T17:20:00.000-08:00

Launched on 1/10/08.

The purpose of this blog is for me to blog away about football, primarily, though I imagine snippets of real life will sneak in here during the off-season. I was advised by a prominent member of the fantasy football industry that if I ever want to be considered for any sort of online media, a blog was critical to start with. Can't hurt, plus it be a great forum for me to boast of my fantasy football accomplishments, gambling success, etc. Hopefully some readers will learn a thing or two.

As this post is just to commemorate the launch, I'll keep it brief. The next post will likely be updated with my regular season record ATS and thoughts and picks on the playoff games.