Parity

Parity is a word that is used every season to describe the NFL after a week full of upsets. Week 6 was officially "parity week." Every article I read makes some mention about teams rising and falling so fast, the athletes are so talented, so anyone can win, etc. Well, all of this "parity" makes for terrible gambling! How many people out there took The Rams, Lions, Cardinals, Browns, and Falcons? Upsets against the spread are one thing, but 4 out of the 5 aforementioned teams won outright. I imagine every survival/knockout pool in the country just got quite a bit thinner.

Needless to say, I went 2-4 last week, and am now batting .500 with my best bets this year. We're just over a third of the way through the season, so there's still plenty of time to get things back on track, and teams are starting to show their true colors (I hope). And hopefully, now that "parity week" is out of the system, we won't see such nonsense again this year.

I don't have my picks yet (probably will post them on Saturday) but here are some reflections on the season so far.

• The Colts are back. The 4th quarter against Houston made me start to believe this, and watching them tear apart the Ravens confirmed it. Addai is out 2-4 weeks, sure, but I'm pretty sure they can survive throwing the ball. The Colts -1 this week is an early candidate to be my best bet.
  

• The Falcons aren't the worst team in the league. Pretty much every sports-writer, "expert", analyst, myself, and your grandma had the Falcons penciled in for 4-12 or worse, and getting another top pick this year. It looks like they have different plans. Matt Ryan is having a great rookie season (57%, 194 YPG, 5TD, 3INT) and the offensive line blocks enough for Turner to pulverize weaker defenses. 8-8 is definitely attainable for this team, and they have a great foundation to build off of going forward.

• Minnesota is not the best team in the league.The Vikings were a sexy pick to represent the NFC in the Superbowl this year. How quickly things turn around. Adrian Peterson is a great running back, but when your QB-WR duo is Tavaris Jackson/Gus Frerotte - Bernard Berrian, things aren't going to go so well for your offense. The defense isn't able to carry this team. The Vikings need a QB of the future, or AP will be the next great running back to spend his career on a miserable team.

• Neither conference is clearly dominant. The NFC has gone from the "Junior Varsity" conference to the "superior conference" and now we're drawing even again. The Colts, Pats, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars were all considered top AFC teams and could handle any NFC opponent. In fact, the only teams worth mentioning in the NFC were the Giants and the Cowboys. Injuries have been a factor for all of these teams, but there's that "parity" word coming up again- In today's NFL, things change rapidly

We can surmise that when in comes to picking winners, we will have to shift our thinking as well this season. Paying attention to injuries, identifying the slumps and streaks, and evaluating matchups are all more important on a weekly basis this year. There are no dominant, powerhouse teams that can be counted on like there were last season. This year, the savvy bettor will need to move quickly on the lines to take advantage of them as well as avoid the trap of "this team can't possibly lose this game." Those games are lost every year, but in the first six weeks this year, it seems like a regular occurrence.

Fantasy Quick Hits

• Addai out 2-4 weeks.
• Kellen Winslow's balls are reducing in size (which is a good thing at this point).
• Jeremy Shockey should be back (pick him up if you can).\
• Ryan Grant is looking like a bust. Be worried if he doesn't put up numbers on the Colts.
• Despite what you read in the news, Dallas should, and likely will, put Romo on the shelf for a few weeks.
• Roy Williams will not be a huge fantasy asset even though he was traded. Think of him as the Chris Chambers of last year.
• Avoid any Kansas City player like the plague this week.
  

Early Picks

Pressed for time, so let's get down to business.


Best Bet: Broncos -3.5 over Jaguars

The Jaguars' pass defense has become a liability recently (26th ranked, 237.2 YPG allowed). Their offense has really struggled, and while the Denver defense has been terrible this year, they did show some life last week. The Broncos at home makes this even easier. Look for a high scoring game with Denver winning by a TD or more.

Confidence: 4.25/5


The Rest:

Houston -3 over Miami

Houston is better than their record. They've lost some close ones. They should be able to beat the Dolphins at home, especially with Schaub likely back in action this week. Their offense finally looked like it was coming together last week.
Confidence: 3.0/5

EDIT, 10/11
This picked has been subbed out for NY Jets -6. News came out today that Palmer is out. The Bengals should be pretty anemic without him.

Saints -7.5 over Oakland

I doubt the players are thrilled about Kiffin being fired. The Raiders are in shambles. The Saints should have a field day against the Raiders, especially if their run defense plays like it did against Minnesota.
Confidence: 3.5/5

Vikings -13 over Lions

The Vikings are at home, coming off a huge road win, playing against... Dan Orlovsky? The Lions seem even worse than the Raiders. They've given up 31+ points EVERY game. AP should explode in this one after being bottled up last week. This game will likely be put away by the end of the third quarter.
Confidence: 4.0/5

Bears -2.5 over Falcons

The Bears get no respect. The Falcons will have the throw the ball to stay in this game. The Bears defense will load up the box every play and force Ryan to beat them. I don't like his odds. The money is quickly going on the Bears (line has moved 1.5 points).
Confidence: 3.5/5

NY Giants -7.5 over Browns

Can anyone explain why the Browns are only 7.5 point dogs on this one? Is it the home field? The 19 points they dropped on Cincy? Did anybody even watch the Giants play last week? Burress is back this week, and the defense was superb last week. Cleveland was a sexy pick this off-season, but people should be realizing that they might have been using some smoke and mirrors last year. Could this game be the end of DA? The Giants should roll over Cleveland easily.
Condifence: 4.0/5

Ah, Hindsight

I'll take 4-1-1 for a week, but changing a "best bet" from a winner to a loser sure doesn't feel too smart. Here are a couple thoughts from the morning and afternoon games.

As expected, Cincy played a bit tougher with Palmer at the helm, and won ATS. Always important to check critical, game-time decisions before you make your picks. I failed to do this in the Bears game (Charles Tillman actually played) and it cost me.

What in the world is wrong with the Chargers? People (myself included) were willing to give them a pass the first 4 weeks, but losing to Miami is making it start to look like that the Chargers might be average, at best. Is Denver really the team to beat in the AFC West? I know Merriman was a great player, but the defense has completely unraveled and I don't think you can place all of the blame on his absence.

Carolina is looking better every week. Great run game, Delhomme and Steve Smith are connecting like they did in 2006. They look like the strongest team in the NFC South now.

Are the Giants that good or the Seahawks that bad? The champs are making a strong case to be considered the best team in the NFC East. Week 9 should be a great showdown with Dallas coming to town.

Arizona vs Whoever is starting to look like an automatic over.

Stayed tuned for some fantasy news and thoughts later this week.

Week 5 Pick Revisions

Best bet is now: Chargers -6.5 over Miami
downgrade Bears pick to 3.5/5 confidence due to injuries/suspensions to defense

remove Dallas from picks due to likelihood of Palmer starting, replaced with New England -3 over San Francisco

The Early Line

Picking games is part art and part science. You can find all of the data in the world to help you make your picks, the only problem is, you can find enough data to go either way. That's where the art comes in. Everyone out there has their own system; some people "follow the money," other people are looking at weather reports, other people develop their own handicapping system with some sort of excel spreadsheet- everyone is different.

When people ask me how I make my picks, I tell them I don't really have a set system. As an avid fantasy football player, I'm up to date on player stats, injuries, who's hot and who's not. As a fan of the game, I'm looking at box scores for all the games every week, trying to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each team just for the sake of knowing these things. And sometimes, as a gambler, there's just a game you want to bet on and no rhyme or reason to explain it.

The one belief that I hold is that odds-makers and the general public (whose betting trends move the lines) are skeptical. It takes more than one game for them to be convinced that a team is bad, good, or just different from the general perceptions created in the media. Unless there is some sort of devastating injury, it takes time for people adjust their expectations. This is where I see my opportunity- I analyze the games with my aforementioned criteria and try to identify games where I feel the statistical data, game film, and box scores don't support the line. So far I'm off to a slow start this season (10-14 overall) but 3-1 on my best bet isn't too bad, and the season is still young and full of surprises.

Here's my take on some of the early lines this for Week 5 (using the Thursday morning line). Oh, and I'll use a confidence rating to give you a gauge on how strongly I feel on a game. A 1 means I might make a friendly wager with you, 5 means I'm putting my rent check on the line. I'll also go in-depth on two games, my top two picks of the week, then list the remaining picks I like in brief. Sort of feeling out the format here, as this is the first weekly posting.

Featured Picks

Best Bet: BEARS -3.5 over LIONS

The Bears are playing great ball right now. they gave up 2 games they would/could/should have won against the Panthers and Bucs, but handled the Eagles and Colts. Sure, they're on the road against Detroit, but does that even matter? The Lions are 0-3 ATS, falling to the Falcons, Packers, and Niners. The Bears D should suffocate them and Matt Forte is poised to have the best game of his young career against the soft Lions run defense (remember Michael Turner rolling for 220 yards in week 1?). I don't know why this line is only 3.5. I'd spot the Bears a touchdown, at least. This pick is a no-brainer.
Confidence: 5/5

CHARGERS -6.5 over DOLPHINS

Yes, the Dolphins beat New England when they were 13 point dogs. I'm not a believer. And yes, the Chargers have looked pretty weak, and only covered against Oakland on a miraculous, clock-killing run play. However, the Chargers are getting healthier. LT is looking better each week, center Nick Hardwick came back last week, and Stephen Cooper comes back from his suspension this week. Just like last year, the Chargers have started slow. I still think they will develop into the contender everyone though they would be. Miami matches up poorly with San Diego. They have the 26th ranked pass defense, and will be facing Gates, Chambers, Jackson, and LT. While their run defense is ranked 10th, they haven't faced any good running teams yet (NY Jets, Cardinals, Pats). Look for the San Diego offense to put this one away early. I also expect their defense to take advantage of the matchup and try to show everyone they're not one of the worst in the league.
Confidence: 4/5

Quick Picks

COLTS -3 over TEXANS

The Colts can't be that bad, can they? This game has the makings of a shootout. The Colts defense is looking pretty bad, and the Texans simply can't find a way to get anything going. The Colts will likely run a bit more of a ball control offense this week to keep their defense fresh and slow down the Texans. Addai should be in for a monster game, and at worst, I see this game being a push.
Confidence: 3/5

TITANS -3 over RAVENS

Hmm, there sure are a lot of road favorites this week. The Titans are one of them, but trust in their defense. I don't think Albert Haynesworth and the Titans are worried about Joe Flacco. Or anyone. This defense is dominant. It'll likely be a low-scoring affair, and the 3 points may feel like 7, but I like the odds of Tennessee turning this game into a route with a couple of big plays on defense and special teams.
Confidence: 3/5

NY GIANTS -7 over SEAHAWKS

For those of you who "follow the money," do the opposite. This line opened at 9, and has since moved to 7. And this was Thursday morning. I can understand some of the logic; Seattle is getting Engram and Branch back, they had a nice, restful bye-week to heal up, and they beat the crap out of the Rams in week 3. And, Plax is out for NY. Still, Seattle is terrible on the road, and the Giants offense will do better than people think without Plax.
Confidence: 2.5/5

COWBOYS -17 over BENGALS

1. Dallas is going to run the ball 30 times this week, both to show the world TO does not call the plays and because they realized how dumb they were for calling 11 runs the entire game last week. Coincidentally, their run defense is ranked 28th, allowing 160+ yards a game. Fantasy owners of Marion Barber, rejoice!
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely starting for the Bengals. Who? The same guy who managed 12 points against Cleveland, that's who.
Confidence: 2/5

Better Lucky Than Good

I've returned from my hiatus. I spent most of my football thoughts today lamenting the first quarter of the season gone by... 7-11-0 ATS my first 3 weeks of a pool... One "serious" fantasy football team staring a 2-2 record in the face, though I've scored the most points in the league. My other "serious" team going to a cool 0-4, after benching Ronnie Brown in week 3 and Steven Jackson in week 4. As I wondered why nothing goes right, the Chargers, my lock/best bet/"sure thing" this week were killing the clock, up by 3 against Oakland when they went off as a 7 point favorite, I watched LT break for a needless touchdown. Needless for the Chargers, but they went from missing the spread by 4 to covering by 3 on that play and salvaged what would have been a miserable week for me. They say it's better to be lucky than good, and sometimes, they're right. Just keep in mind for all the bad breaks you catch, you're bound to get a good one every now and again.

Sunday is not the normal day I'll be posting, but I wanted to get back in the saddle and get the blog going again. Hopefully my half-dozen readers haven't abandoned me. I'll try to post my picks early this week, as well as some fantasy thoughts at some point on the weekend.

Noteworthy News:

Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans: A friend called me late last night seeking some line-up help. I recommended picking up Lance Moore and benching Brian Westbrook. Lance had a huge day (7 rec, 101 yds, 2TDs) and should be picked up. He'll be solid as long as Colston and Shockey are out.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay: He's telling people he separated his shoulder. Tests to come tomorrow. He has a tasty matchup against Atlanta next week, if he's healthy.

Brett Favre, QB, NY Jets: Sell high. 6TDs? SIX?!? No way. It's all downhill from here. Maybe Favre can keep it together and do what he did last year, but I think he'll have a meltdown at some point.

Larry Johnson, RB, KC Chiefs: Holy crap! Avoiding him on draft day doesn't seem so smart anymore, does it?

Steve Slaton, RB, Houston: He didn't do well running this week but he sure did catch. If he's available in your league, he's worth picking up. He's put together two consecutive good weeks and has a nice matchup next week (Indy).

Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona: Ouch. That hit was nasty. Early word is nothing major (like paralysis or broken bones) but I'm sure he has a concussion. He'll probably miss some time. Steve Breaston could be a good pickup after a solid day today.

Noteworthy Gambling News:

That was a classic trap game for Denver. Also some a matchup issue, as their run defense is still a bit soft. I like them to rebound at home against Tampa next week. I imagine the line will be Denver -4 or -5. This game will serve as a good wake-up call.

Carolina is looking pretty consistent. I would expect a similar performance next week against the Chiefs, should be an easy pick if the line opens up less than -7, which is possible due to today's upset.

Who can beat Tennessee right now? They look like legitimate contenders with Collins at the helm. The odds-makers haven't been believers as of yet.

Arizona is fast coming down to earth, and losing Boldin won't help. I wouldn't expect them to play Buffalo tough next week.

NFC East Division games are becoming increasing tough to bet. It looks like anything is possible in this division. I don't remember ever seeing a division this competitive since the NFL the divisions were restructured.

Defensive Rankings

While some will target defenses earlier in fantasy drafts (rounds 6-9) I prefer to hold out til after the 10th. Defenses are slightly easier to predict than kickers, which doesn't say much. There are a few easy picks each season, but beyond that, it can become tricky to identify the "sleeper" defense out there, and many trendy/expert/sexy picks tend to deteriorate due to injury, poor offensive support, or some other reason. So, while I don't advocate spending too early of a pick on one, it can't hurt to try to get a decent one and then then just pick up whoever is playing the worst offense in the league in your bye week.

1) Minnesota- This is the consensus #1 defense this year. They were already the best run-stopping unit in the league, and Jared Allen will help bolster the pass rush. The secondary is still week, but this defense should make teams one-dimensional early in games and rack up sacks, turnovers, and keep the points scored low.

2) San Diego- Last year: 1st in INTs (30). 2nd in Fumbles Recovered (18). 5th in Sacks (42). They didn't lose much in the off-season and have a great young nucleus of players. They also make a safe pick for you defense.

3) Pittsburgh- This unit is well-rounded and has great support from its offense. They might not be the flashiest defense, and their turnover numbers are lower than others, but they are consistent and improving.

4) New York Giants- I'm still not convinced they're as good as they played during the playoffs, but it's hard to deny their pass-rushing capability. Strahan is done, but Tuck will become an every down lineman this year. The weak link here is the secondary, which should continue to improve as young players like Aaron Ross and rookie Kenny Phillips develop.

5) New England- The best defense is a good offense? The Pats better hope so. The defense is aging, Asante Samuel is gone. At least Jerod Mayo finally brings some youth to the AARP card-carrying line-backing corps.

6) Jacksonville- A new defensive coordinator should improve this unit. While no particular area stands out, none is particularly weak, either. The conservative offense will help keep the defense fresh and points against down.

7) Tennessee- As long as Albert is healthy, this defense is good. They lost a good pass rusher in Antwan Odom in the off-season and they have a few young players, but they should be able to stop the run and get to the passer, both critical for long-term success.

8) Dallas- "Patriots Lite." The defense is a little better and the offense is a little worse than the Pats, but their biggest strength is having an offense than can absolutely bury a team in the first half, which makes for easy sacks and INTs in the second half.

9) Chicago- Oh, how the mighty have fallen. This defense is a prime example of what happens to a great defense when it's paired with an absolutely atrocious offense. They still have the talent in place to be the top unit in the league, but unfortunately, their inept offense will wear them down before long, and the division is quickly becoming tougher.

10) Seattle- A consistently underrated defense (even in these rankings!). They had the 4th most sacks and INTs last season, and even 3rd most fantasy points in default formats. Yet for some reason, they never get too much attention going into the season. They benefit from a weak division.

11) Philadelphia- Here's a good defense to take a gamble on. They did poorly last year, but they added Asante Samuel this year and didn't trade Lito Sheppard. Their secondary is absolutely loaded which will allow them to load up in the box and shut down the run. They should improve drastically this year.

12) San Francisco- Yes, this is a bit of a homer pick, but hear me out. They have one of the best young linebackers in the league with Patrick Willis. They're not nearly as injured as last year, they made another big free agent move with Justin Smith, and Nate Clements is still playing corner. If they can get any help from the offense, I think they could easily be in the top 12 given the weak divisional opponents they'll get to play. They make a sneaky/risky/brave/stupid DEF2 pick.